The 2023 college football conference championship season will kick off on Friday, December 1 as a loaded field of worthy candidates compete to earn a spot in the CFP semifinals.
#305 Oregon vs Washington (Las Vegas, Nevada)
Washington holds the 62-48-5 all-time advantage in this Pacific party, including a 37-34 road win in Eugene last season and a 36-33 home win in Seattle earlier this season. The Ducks, however, have covered the number in four of the last five meetings. This is Oregon’s sixth appearance in the Pac-12 title game, capturing the trophy in 2011, 2014, 2019 and 2020 before losing to Utah in 2021. This is Washington’s third championship game appearance after winning the title in 2016 and 2018. The undefeated Huskies failed to cover the number in six of their last eight games. Oregon went 10-2 against the spread this season, including a point spread cover (+3.5) at Washington in their Week 7 meeting. The roles will be drastically different this time around with the Ducks opening as a nine-point favorite on the neutral field in Las Vegas.
#307 New Mexico State at Liberty
In their first season competing in Conference-USA, the newbies have crashed the party. This was the first year in the conference for both Liberty and New Mexico State, but the Flames and Aggies have plenty of recent history. Liberty holds a 4-2 all-time advantage in this matchup, and in a unique scheduling twist, this will be the fourth-straight meeting in Lynchburg. New Mexico State earned a 49-14 road win last season, but the Flames captured the regular season meeting 33-17 earlier this year. Liberty went 8-4 against the spread this season, but laying points as a big favorite has not been a good role for the Flames. Over the last two seasons, Liberty is 3-10 against the number as a double-digit favorite. New Mexico State went 10-2-1 against the spread this year, including eight-straight point spread covers to end the regular season. The under cashed in six of New Mexico State’s last seven games.
#309 Texas vs Oklahoma State (Arlington, Texas)
Texas holds a 26-11 all-time advantage in this Big XII battle, but the Cowboys have been fairly dominant in recent years. Oklahoma State has won six of the last eight meetings, including a 32-24 road win in Austin in 2021 followed by a 41-34 home win in Stillwater last season. The Cowboys have covered the number in four of the last five meetings. Texas went 6-5-1 against the spread this season. The under cashed in eight of the Longhorns’ 12 games. Oklahoma State went 7-5 against the number this season, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog. Five of the Cowboys’ last seven games have gone over the total. Since the Big XII moved back to its current championship format in 2017, neither the Cowboys nor the Longhorns have won a league title. Texas lost to Oklahoma in 2018 and Oklahoma State lost to Baylor in 2021.
#311 Miami (Oh) vs Toledo (Detroit, Michigan)
Toledo’s 21-17 road win in Oxford as a 2.5-point favorite was the first meeting between the RedHawks and Rockets since 2011. Miami went 9-3 against the spread this season, including outright upset wins over Ohio as a 7.5-point underdog and Cincinnati as a 14-point underdog. Toledo went 6-6 against the spread this season, but the Rockets turned it on late in the year covering the number in four of their last five games. This will be Toledo’s eighth appearance in the MAC Championship Game after beating Ohio 17-7 at Ford Field last season. This will be Miami’s sixth conference championship game appearance, with the last one coming in 2019.
#313 Boise State at UNLV
Boise State holds an 8-3 all-time edge in this Mountain West matchup, but the Broncos and Rebels have not met since 2019. This will be the 11th edition of the Mountain West Championship game, and we’ve got two teams on completely different ends of the experience spectrum. This will be Boise State’s seventh appearance in 11 years, winning the title in 2014, 2017 and 2019 while losing in 2018, 2020 and 2022. The Broncos hosted last year’s championship game at Albertsons Stadium, but fell to Fresno State 28-16. On the other side, this is UNLV’s first conference championship game…ever. UNLV’s only conference championship came as a member of the Big West in 1994 after a 7-5 season. Needless to say, this one will probably be celebrated a little bit more if the Rebels can get the job done at Allegiant Stadium. UNLV went 10-2 against the spread this season, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog. The over was 7-2-1 in the Rebels’ last ten games. Boise State went 6-5-1 against the number this season, covering the spread in the Broncos’ final three games.
#315 SMU at Tulane
Last year’s 59-24 Tulane win broke a streak of seven-straight SMU wins in this series. Each of the last three meetings have gone over the total. The Green Wave will host the AAC championship in back-to-back seasons after capturing last year’s title with a 45-28 home win over UCF. This is SMU’s first appearance in the AAC title game. The Mustangs have not competed for a conference championship since 2010 when they lost to UCF in the Conference USA title game. SMU was 7-5 against the spread this season, but the Mustangs failed to cover the number in their two games as an underdog (at Oklahoma and at TCU). Five of SMU’s last six games have gone over the total. Tulane went 5-7 against the spread this season. The Green Wave were favored in 11 of their 12 games this season, with the lone exception being a home game against Ole Miss without starting QB Michael Pratt. The under was 10-2 in Tulane’s games this year, including four-straight to end the regular season.
#317 Georgia vs Alabama (Atlanta, Georgia)
Alabama holds a 42-26-4 all-time advantage in this SEC showdown. Georgia’s 33-18 win in the 2022 College Football Playoff championship game broke a streak of seven-straight wins by the Crimson Tide in this series. This will be the fourth time in the last 12 years that the Bulldogs and Tide have met in the SEC title game, with Alabama winning each of the prior three. Georgia has four conference titles since 2002, but all four of those wins came against teams outside of Tuscaloosa (two vs LSU, one vs Arkansas and one vs Auburn). Alabama went 8-4 against the spread this season, but this will be the Crimson Tide’s first game as an underdog. The over was 9-2-1 in Alabama’s games this season, including 6-1-1 in SEC play. Georgia was 5-7 against the spread this season. The Bulldogs were a double-digit favorite in 11 of their 12 games (-8 at Tennessee two weeks ago).
#319 App State at Troy
Since App State joined the FBS ranks, the Mountaineers have won seven of the eight meetings including each of the last five. The Trojans covered the number as a 14-point underdog last season, breaking a streak of three-straight covers by the Mountaineers. Each of the last three meetings have gone over the total. App State went 6-5-1 against the number this season, covering the spread in each of its final four games. Troy went 7-5 against the spread this season, covering the number in seven of its last eight games. The Trojans’ last three games have gone over the total. The Sun Belt first introduced a conference championship game in 2018, with App State and Louisiana meeting in each of the first three (Mountaineers won two, lost one). Troy captured last year’s title with a 45-25 home win over Coastal Carolina.
#321 Louisville vs Florida State (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Florida State holds a 5-4 advantage in this matchup since Louisville joined the ACC a decade ago. The Cardinals captured a 31-23 road win in Tallahassee in 2021 and Florida State returned the favor with a 35-31 road win in Louisville last season. The Seminoles went 7-5 against the spread this season, but they were particularly good in competitive games without mammoth point spreads. Florida State was 4-0 against the number when the spread was less than two touchdowns. Louisville went 6-5-1 against the spread this season, but the Cardinals were not in this underdog role very often. Discounting their game at Miami (Fla) which closed around a pick’em, Louisville has only been an underdog once this season where they pulled a mild home upset over Notre Dame at home. This is Louisville’s first ACC Championship Game appearance. Florida State is 4-1 in the ACC Championship Game, but the Seminoles have not made an appearance since beating Georgia Tech in 2014. Clemson has been the Atlantic Division representative in seven of the last eight years.
#323 Michigan vs Iowa (Indianapolis, Indiana)
Michigan holds a 44-15-4 all-time advantage in this Big Ten battle, including a 42-3 win in the 2021 conference title game and a 27-14 road win in Iowa City last year. Four of the last five meetings have stayed under the total. Iowa went 6-5-1 against the spread this season, including 1-1 ATS as an underdog (lost 31-0 at Penn State; beat Wisconsin outright as a +9 ‘dog). The under went 10-2 in Iowa’s games this season, with each of the Hawkeyes’ last seven games staying under the total. Michigan also went 6-5-1 against the spread this season. Four of those five point spread losses occurred in games where head coach Jim Harbaugh was missing from the sidelines. The over is 6-1-1 in the Wolverines’ last eight games. Since the Big Ten moved to the East vs West division format in 2014, the East division representative has won all nine conference championship games by an average of 20.1 points per game.