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2023 AL MVP Odds and Betting Predictions

Play Ball! The 2023 MLB Season opens on Thursday, March 30th, so it’s time to look at MLB futures markets.  The AL MVP race, to no surprise, lists Shohei Ohtani (+200) as the favorite to win the AL MVP award this season. Aaron Judge (+450), last year’s winner, and Mike Trout (+450) have the next-best odds of winning the award this season.

2023 AL MVP Odds

Player Team Odds
Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Angels +200
Aaron Judge New York Yankees +450
Mike Trout Los Angeles Angels +450
Julio Rodriguez Seattle Mariners +700
Yordan Alvarez Houston Astros +1100
Vlad Guerrero Jr. Toronto Blue Jays +1200
Jose Ramirez Cleveland Guardians +1500
Rafael Devers Boston Red Sox +2000
Corey Seager Texas Rangers +2000
Kyle Tucker Houston Astros +2500
Wander Franco Tampa Bay Rays +2500
Adley Rutschman Baltimore Orioles +2500
Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins +3000
Carlos Correa Minnesota Twins +3500
Bo Bichette Toronto Blue Jays +3500
Alex Bregman Houston Astros +4000

Odds above courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, March 1.

AL MVP Favorites

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (+200) – As the only MLB player that can pitch and hit, it is obvious why Ohtani is the favorite to win the award. What’s not so obvious is exactly how amazing he is at both. Ohtani had a 142 wRC+, a 3.8 WAR, and 34 home runs at the dish last season. On the rubber, Ohtani had a 5.6 WAR, a 2.40 FIP, and an 11.87 K/9. These numbers put him among the best hitters and pitchers in the sport, and he does both exceptionally well. 

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (+450) – Aaron Judge put together a historic year last season and took home his first AL MVP award. While regression seems inevitable, what Judge did last season was no fluke. His 11.4 WAR was No. 1 in the MLB, and even if that declines by 3 points, he would still lead the MLB. With no shift, Judge can actually pile up more hits. He should be in store for another MVP-caliber season. 

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (+450)Mike Trout is the best baseball player of the last decade, but injuries have been taking their toll on him the past couple of seasons. When Trout is healthy, he’s as good as it gets. However, at 31 years old with back-to-back injury-plagued seasons, Trout’s MVP campaign is up to how his body can hold up. 

AL MVP Value Bets

Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (+1500)Ramirez had a hell of a 2022 season and finished fourth place in AL MVP voting. It will be hard to surpass Ohtani since he pitches and hits, but Ramirez should be poised for another monster season. Ramirez will rack up more hits without the shift, more steals with the larger bags, and more RBIs, as the Guardians have a good roster around him.

Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays (+2500) Franco will be 22 to start the 2023 campaign and is a prime candidate to break out this season. In 83 games last year, Franco had 87 hits, 33 RBIs, and 46 runs. Barring injury, he is expected to play all season long, and the sky is the limit for what this kid can do. Franco has shown he is already an elite hitter, and this can very well be his “welcome to the show” season.

AL MVP Longshot

Jose Abreu, Houston Astros (+7000)The Astros signed Abreu to a free agent deal this off-season, and Abreu can make a splash on his new team. He finished last season with just 183 hits, 40 doubles, and 75 RBIs. However, he won the award in the Covid shortened 2022 season and has finished with MVP votes in all but two years of his career. +7000 is too juicy not to take a flyer on Abreu. 

Past AL MVP Award Winners

2022 – Aaron Judge, New York OF
2021 – Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles, OF/P
2020 – Jose Abreu, Chicago 1B
2019 – Mike Trout, Los Angeles OF
2018 – Mookie Betts, Boston OF
2017 – Jose Altuve, Houston 2B
2016 – Mike Trout, Los Angeles OF
2015 – Josh Donaldson, Toronto 3B
2014 – Mike Trout, Los Angeles OF
2013 – Miguel Cabrera, Detroit 1B
2012 – Miguel Cabrera, Detroit 1B
2011 – Justin Verlander, Detroit P
2010 – Josh Hamilton, Texas OF

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