European Soccer Weekly Bonus... World Cup 2010 Woes?

The clock is ticking on the 2006-07 European season. The majority of domestic races have been sorted out, and we now know that AC Milan will be meeting Liverpool (in a deiicious rematch of their 2005 matchup at Istanbul) in the Champions League final at Athens May 23.

But the World Cup is never far from our minds, and developments in the last few weeks have thrust Copa Mundial front and center once more. And we suspect we might be hearing more news leading up to, and immediately after, the upcoming FIFA Congress. So, what really is going on with World Cup 2010, or, down the road a little further, World Cup 2014?

Despite our many complaints about Sepp Blatter, we have never labeled the man a dummy. Calculating, yes. Misguided at times, absolutely. But the Seppmeister is nobody’s fool, which is why we weren’t surprised when Blatter went public with his “contingency plan” for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. Blatter’s comments to BBC TV’s Inside Sport program broadcast April 30, were reported on the BBC Web site (www.bbc.co.uk) the same day.

“Other countries are ready to organize the World Cup”, Blatter is quoted as saying, although he implied they would not be needed. He told the BBC that the United States, England, Mexico, Japan and Spain would be ready to step in. “Definitely we have a possibility to go somewhere else if something happens,” he said. “It was the same case as in Germany. Something can happen. A natural catastrophe or whatever, or a big change in society, everybody against football.

“But then for the time being the Plan B is South Africa, and the Plan C we definitely must have is a possibility to go somewhere else, but it must be a natural catastrophe.” So, perhaps Blatter, in his inimitable way, is merely trying to quell the whispers that have been floating around the world football community for a while now, that South Africa might not be able to pull off the big party three years hence. And maybe, by saying that South Africa was both his Plan A and Plan B, Blatter was assuring everyone that things were okay in Johannesburg.

The fact FIFA has a contingency plan is no surprise at all. But that Blatter felt compelled to come forward with it in a public forum is rather interesting, to say the least.

Let’s switch reels and rewind back to early 1983. For those fans with long memories, you’ll recall that Colombia was slated to host the 1986 World Cup. Indeed, as they were winding up the 1982 Copa Mundial in Spain, Colombia was very visible in the ceremonies, accepting the “handoff” from then-FIFA boss Joao Havelange for 1986.

Colombia, however, was having all sorts of organizational problems. Construction, in particular, had fallen dangerously behind schedule. Havelange, along with his then-sidekick (and deputy secretary) Blatter, wasn’t about to watch FIFA’s ultimate (and only) cash cow go down the drain because of an inept organizing structure. When it became apparent Colombia wasn’t up to the task, Havelange acted swiftly, and pulled the ‘86 World Cup from Colombia. Fortunately, Mexico was ready, willing, and able to step in on short notice and pick up the ball. The 1970 Copa Mundial had been a huge success in Mexico. Stadiums were mostly ready, and the infrastructure was in place to handle the event. Although the USA also made a pitch to become the emergency host, Havelange went back to his old reliable friend, Mexico, which saved the day. (Although there was more nervousness to come in fall of ‘85 when a major earthquake hit Mexico, but the stadiums escaped unscathed, and the show went on). More recently, the 2003 Women’s World Cup was moved from China to the United States, due to the SARS outbreak. That was a true emergency situation, and the USA had only a couple of months to get prepared, and pulled it off. A more reasonable scenario for a replacement host, however, would be at least a 3-year window to get prepared, as Mexico did for 1986. Which means if South Africa appears on track to get things ready throughout this calendar year, it is doubtful Blatter would pull the rug. But he still might. You see, the World Cup has become such a big-money event, with major advertisers behind it, that anything less than a smooth show is unacceptable. There are provisos built into the contracts that provide escape hatches for the advertisers if FIFA can’t uphold its end of the bargain. Which means the venue and organizing committee had better be prepared, or else.

It is worth noting that Blatter didn’t see fit to go public with any such contingency plan prior to World Cup 2006. There was never any question that the Germans wouldn’t be ready last summer. Indeed, they were far enough ahead of schedule that they were able to allot sufficient resources to security issues, which in this day and age are paramount for such a huge event. And, beyond construction delays, more than a few folks are wondering if South Africa can handle the security factors that are an unfortunate byproduct of major events these days. Will the South Africans be up to it? The fact there isn’t unanimity on the subject from the world football community suggests that we’ll still have to wait and see. Blatter, who championed the World Cup for the dark continent and cajoled enough votes from the delegation to win the FIFA presidency, is unlikely to do anything before the upcoming FIFA Congress May 31 in Zurich, where he stands unopposed for another term. After that, however, Blatter’s considerable survival instincts will kick into gear. And if there’s a chance the South Africans won’t be able to live up to their end of the bargain, and FIFA stands to lose money because of it, you’ll see where Blatter’s real priorities lie.

Still, a lot of football followers believe South Africa will be up to the task. Where Blatter might have to really get the contingency plan ready, however, is for 2014. The fact Brazil is apparently campaigning unopposed to host the 2014 event is sending more of a chill down the spine of the world football community than the prospects of South Africa hosting the event three years hence.

And if Brazil turns into the sort of mess it appears capable of, the blame will rest with Blatter. Remember, Blatter’s bogus “rotating confederation” idea to host the World Cup was designed to make sure an African nation (or, more specifically, South Africa) would get the 2010 World Cup. Come hell or high water, Blatter wasn’t going to let the same thing happen as did in 2000, when his preferred South African bid was trumped by behind-the-scenes maneuvering of the European delegation (and others) which tipped the scales, however slightly, to Germany.

In order to force a South Africa World Cup down everyone’s throats, Blatter had to concoct the “rotating” World Cup policy. Whereas Europe, the real center of the football universe, had always been able to host every other World Cup in the past, it would now have to wait in a queue after Africa, South Africa, Asia, North America, and, if followed to the letter, Oceania, hosted their own World Cups.

Blatter, however, has recently hedged that bet by stating that North America could be substituted for South America (apparently, the “Americas” will now be considered as one), and it appears as if the whole rotating World Cup idea will be put to the sword soon enough. After all, Blatter won’t care much after he finally gets to deliver the main course to the South Africans and the continent that helped him get elected to the FIFA throne, and nobody else in the world football community seems the least bit interested in the plan continuing. Even Michel Platini (left), the former star player and Blatter confidante recently elected to the UEFA Presidency, is on record as saying he thinks Europe should be in line for no worse than every third World Cup. Blatter’s “rotation policy” would have an Asian venue (or perhaps Australia), not Europe, in line for 2018, but the Seppmeister is already backpedaling from that one, hinting that Europe (and most likely England) might indeed be “allowed” get involved for 2018.

The problem with Blatter’s rotation ruse, however, is that nobody has bothered thinking much about 2014 other than the South Americans, and with Colombia pulling out of the running, Brazil’s candidacy is now basically unopposed. And if most of the world football community is to be believed, the South Africans are pillars of strength compared to what might transpire with the Brazilians.

Violence in Brazil is spiraling out of control. Cities such as Recife have homicide rates twice as high as the most crime-ridden American cities. Gangland style murders have become commonplace. Tourists are being encouraged to stay away from large swaths of the country, including many parts of Rio de Janeiro, its slums in stark contrast to the famous Ipanema and Copacabana beaches. Sao Paulo might be the world’s most congested city. And the corruption in the government continues. A security apparatus focused on political repression instead of common crime (a leftover of the military dictatorships that ran for a quarter of a century) has allowed bank robberies, assaults, and drug trafficking to explode in Latin America’s largest country.

Moreover, the status of the country’s once-beloved football palaces has deteriorated to an alarming degree. The once-magnificent Maracana (right) sits in disrepair in a Rio slum, and would need a total makeover to become World Cup-ready. Indeed, many are championing its demolition instead. Given the present circumstances, the last thing Brazil needs is to take on the responsibility of hosting a World Cup. They’re not up to it now, and they might be even less ready in 2014.

There is, however, an escape route for Blatter, one the world football community would be glad to adopt.

It’s the United States.

It should come as no surprise that the USA is being mentioned as a stop-gap for 2010 or 2014. No country is able to mobilize its resources for a big event like the USA, which put on a grand show for the world when hosting the World Cup in 1994 (won by Brazil, left). It also represents something of a no-risk alternative for Blatter, who can be confident that the Americans will put on the show properly, and without a hitch.

The world football community knows it as well, and a poll of global soccer insiders would probably reveal that a majority of them expect the USA to come to FIFA’s rescue, either in 2010, if South Africa can’t get its act together, or, more likely, in 2014, when Brazil will likely be overwhelmed by the project, and have to bail out soon thereafter.

The sad thing about such developments, however, would be to deprive the USA of the proper buildup to the World Cup as it had in 1994. Although the Americans proved they could whip together an organization in almost no time when coming to the rescue of the 2003 Women’s World Cup, if the Yanks are going to get their chance, they should be able to do it the right way.

What Blatter’s bogus rotation system has done, however, is force the World Cup on countries and continents that might not be able to handle it. We’ll give South Africa the benefit of the doubt and assume it will sneak in under the wire, with everything ready on time. But from what we hear, Brazil is a long way from being in that position in the foreseeable future, and to award it the 2014 event because it is the continent’s “turn” is regrettable.

And if Blatter is pushing Brazil as a last favor to Senor Havelange, who will be approaching 100 years old in 2014 (and if we had to bet, we’d say he’ll be around), that might prove an unfitting denouement for the old man. As long as Havelange is going to be there, why not give hima World Cup that he can be proud of, instead of the fiasco a Brazil World Cup promises to be?

As always...stay tuned!

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