NFL Playoffs Review

We really should have known what to expect from the start!

Indeed, when THE GOLD SHEET began publishing in 1957, that season’s NFL championship game at Briggs Stadium was no nailbiter. Final score: Detroit 59, Cleveland 14. Lions QB Tobin Rote, in for an injured Bobby Layne, directed a relentless attack that posted a 31-7 halftime lead and kept its foot on the pedal in the second half. Rote, who would later QB the 1963 San Diego Chargers to an AFL title-game scoring record in a 51-10 win over the Boston Patriots, tossed 4 TD passes and ran for another score, while rookie Terry Barr (who would later gain more acclaim as a wide receiver) scored on a 19-yard interception return.

Even then, however, such runaway wins were commonplace in title game annals. The previous season (1956), the Giants had walloped the Bears, 47-7, in the NFL championship at a frigid Yankee Stadium. Cleveland, in QB Otto Graham’s last game, pounded the Rams, 38-14, in a rainy 1955 game at the L.A. Coliseum. And in 1954, the Browns had laced the Lions, 56-10, by the shores of Lake Erie. No wonder Detroit took such glee in running up the score on Paul Brown’s team three years later!

The point is that the trend of one-sided results in championship-level football games is nothing new, and the penultimate NFL weekend featuring conference title games has been no exception. In fact, one-sided games have been the rule lately in AFC & NFC championship tilts. Over the last four seasons, every conference title matchup has been decided by double digits. The past two seasons, all four AFC & NFC championship tussles have been decided by 14 or more. And since the 1970 merger, more than half of the conference title games (37 of 72!) have been decided by at least 14 points, with 8 shutouts. It was much the same in the pre-merger ‘60s, when six of the last seven AFL title games were decided by double digits, including one-sided 51-10, 23-0, 31-7, & 40-7 romps, and four of the last six NFL championships were decided by double-digit margins as well (the lone exceptions that span being the memorable Green Bay-Dallas showdowns in 1966 and the “Ice Bowl” of 1967). Included were 27-0, 34-0, & 27-7 scorelines between 1964-69. Let’s also not forget the Packers’ 37-0 romp past the Giants in 1961. And a few oldtimers might even remember how George Halas’ Bears humiliated the Redskins in the 1940 title game, 73-0, the biggest margin of victory in NFL history!

It’s not just the pro ranks that have seen their championship games evolve into non-competitive affairs, either. In the twelve college football Bowl Alliance/BCS “title games” since 1995, eight have been decided by double digits, with six of those certified romps, including Florida’s 41-14 rout over Ohio State last week.

So what is it about championship-level football that invites blowouts? Aficionados have provided a variety of theories to us over the years, although there is one common thread that seems to run through most explanations. Trailing teams, when sensing a game, season, and chance at history slipping away, are more apt to gamble to reverse the tide—often with disastrous results. Look no further than last week’s BCS title game, when Ohio State HC Jim Tressel, desperate for his team to maintain contact with the rampaging Gators, uncharacteristically gambled on a 4th down at his own 29 late in the first half. The subsequent failure to convert immediately boomeranged on the Buckeyes, and the rout was on. And in championship-level games, teams with leads are less apt to “sit” on their cushion with the outcome not yet assured. They’ll often go for the throat to remove any doubt, and often have the resources to accomplish the kill. It’s amazing how often that pattern seems to have repeated itself in title-game football over the years.

From a handicapping perspective, however, that doesn’t make things any easier, especially when considering the history of the conference title round. That’s because underdogs, especially in recent years, have been just as likely to do the whupppin’ as the favorites in AFC & NFC championships. For a long while, this was a home-team round, especially during the ‘80s, when hosts and favorites (usually the same) bossed the action, covering 16 of 20 conference title games. Since 1990, however, visitors (usually underdogs) have covered 18 of 32, and 12 of the last 18 since ‘97. Further, six of the last ten double-digit AFC/NFC title game wins have been recorded by the road underdogs!

Historically, aside from the one-sided scorelines, are there any other conference title game pointspread trends or patterns worth review? As mentioned above, underdogs have provided decent value lately (8-4 since 2000). "Intermediate/high" favorites (those laying between 7-9½ points) are 14-3 vs. the number in conference championships since 1970. Home teams have won straight up almost two-thirds of the time since the merger (47 of 72); home chalk still a noteworthy 33-23-2 since '70. Conference title "totals" trends aren’t too illuminating, although both (Steelers-Broncos and Panthers-Seahawks) went “over” last January.

Still, don’t automatically assume more blowouts are in store this week. Conference title games have also produced a handful of gems in the past, including two of the undisputed classics in NFL history (who can forget Dwight Clark’s “The Catch” in San Francisco’s pulsating, back-and-forth 28-27 win over Dallas in the 1981 NFC title game, or “The Drive” authored by John Elway in Denver’s 23-20 overtime win at Cleveland in the classic ‘86 AFC championship?). Just don’t be surprised if TV play-by-play announcers Joe Buck and Jim Nantz are forced to dip into their joke bags to keep viewers entertained in the late going this Sunday.

Following is a list of pointspread breakdowns and results of AFC & NFC Championships since 1970. CATEGORY RESULT
Favorites/Underdogs (one pick 'em) 39-30-2
Favorites straight up 46-25
Favored by 1-3 points 10-9
Favored by 3½-6½ points 11-11-2
Favored by 7-9½ points 14-3
Favored by 10 or more 4-7
Home teams straight up 47-25
Home teams vs. spread 40-30-2
Home favorites vs. spread 33-23-2
Home underdogs vs. spread 7-6
Home pick'em vs. spread 0-1
Overs/unders (since 1986) 21-19

MARGINS OF VICTORY 1-3 points 8
4-6 points 8
7-10 points 9
11-13 points 10
14 or more 37

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP RESULTS

2005 SEATTLE (-3½) 34 - Carolina 14
2004 PHILADELPHIA (-5½) 27 - Atlanta 10
2003 Carolina (+4) 14 - PHILADELPHIA 3
2002 Tampa Bay (+4) 27 - PHILADELPHIA 10
2001 ST. LOUIS (-10½) 29 - Philadelphia 24
2000 N.Y. GIANTS (+2½) 41 - Minnesota 0
1999 ST. LOUIS (-14) 11 - Tampa Bay 6
1998 Atlanta (+11) 30 - MINNESOTA 27 (OT)
1997 Green Bay (-2½) 23 - SAN FRANCISCO 10
1996 GREEN BAY (-12½) 30 - Carolina 13
1995 DALLAS (-8½) 38 - Green Bay 27
1994 SAN FRANCISCO (-7½) 38 - Dallas 28
1993 DALLAS (-3½) 38 - San Francisco 21
1992 Dallas (+4) 30 - SAN FRANCISCO 20
1991 WASHINGTON (-13½) 41 - Detroit 10
1990 N.Y. Giants (+8) 15 - SAN FRANCISCO 13
1989 SAN FRANCISCO (-7) 30 - L.A. Rams 3
1988 San Francisco (pick) 28 - CHICAGO 3
1987 WASHINGTON (-3½) 17 - Minnesota 10
1986 N.Y. GIANTS (-7½) 17 - Washington 0
1985 CHICAGO (-10½) 24 - L.A. Rams 0
1984 SAN FRANCISCO (-9) 23 - Chicago 0
1983 WASHINGTON (-10½) 24 - San Francisco 21
1982 WASHINGTON (+2) 31 - Dallas 17
1981 SAN FRANCISCO (+3) 28 - Dallas 27
1980 PHILADELPHIA (+1) 20 - Dallas 7
1979 Los Angeles (-3½) 9 - TAMPA BAY 0
1978 Dallas (-3½) 28 - LOS ANGELES 0
1977 DALLAS (-11½) 23 - Minnesota 6
1976 MINNESOTA (-4½) 24 - Los Angeles 13
1975 Dallas (+6) 37 - LOS ANGELES 7
1974 MINNESOTA (-4) 14 - Los Angeles 10
1973 Minnesota (+1) 27 - DALLAS 10
1972 WASHINGTON (-3) 26 - Dallas 3
1971 DALLAS (-7½) 14 - San Francisco 3
1970 Dallas (+4) 17 - SAN FRANCISCO 10

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP RESULTS

2005 Pittsburgh (+3) 34 - DENVER 17
2004 New England (+3) 41 - PITTSBURGH 27
2003 NEW ENGLAND (-3) 24 - Indianapolis 14
2002 OAKLAND (-8) 41 - Tennessee 24
2001 New England (+10) 24 - PITTSBURGH 17
2000 Baltimore (+6) 16 - OAKLAND 3
1999 Tennessee (+7) 33 - JACKSONVILLE 14
1998 DENVER (-9) 23 - N.Y. Jets 10
1997 Denver (-2½) 24 - PITTSBURGH 21
1996 NEW ENGLAND (-7) 20 - Jacksonville 6
1995 PITTSBURGH (-11½) 20 - Indianapolis 16
1994 San Diego (+9) 17 - PITTSBURGH 13
1993 BUFFALO (-3) 30 - Kansas City 13
1992 Buffalo (-2½) 29 - MIAMI 10
1991 BUFFALO (-11½) 10 - Denver 7
1990 BUFFALO (-7) 51 - L.A. Raiders 3
1989 DENVER (-3½) 37 - Cleveland 21
1988 CINCINNATI (-4½) 21 - Buffalo 10
1987 DENVER (-3) 38 - Cleveland 33
1986 Denver (+3) 23 - CLEVELAND 20 (OT)
1985 New England (+5½) 31 - MIAMI 14
1984 MIAMI (-9½) 45 - Pittsburgh 28
1983 L.A. RAIDERS (-7½) 30 - Seattle 14
1982 MIAMI (-2) 14 - N.Y. Jets 0
1981 CINCINNATI (-4½) 27 - San Diego 7
1980 Oakland (+4) 34 - SAN DIEGO 27
1979 PITTSBURGH (-9½) 27 - Houston 13
1978 PITTSBURGH (-7) 34 - Houston 5
1977 DENVER (+3½) 20 - Oakland 17
1976 OAKLAND (+4½) 24 - Pittsburgh 7
1975 PITTSBURGH (-6) 16 - Oakland 10
1974 Pittsburgh (+5½) 24 - OAKLAND 13
1973 MIAMI (-6½) 27 - Oakland 10
1972 Miami (-2½) 21 - PITTSBURGH 17
1971 MIAMI (-1½) 21 - Baltimore 0
1970 BALTIMORE (+1) 27 - Oakland 17

Make Bet on the NFL Playoffs
Football fans everywhere have been waiting an entire season to see their team make the playoffs. 17 weeks and 256 games later and that time has come. The NFL postseason is here. Bet on the NFL playoffs at Bodog and put yourself in the game.

NFL Football Related Articles

Return To Articles Archive