TGS 2007 Football Preview Bonus: NFL Fantasy Forecast!

"Fantasy rating" guide: 10...superstar; 8-9...franchise talent; 6-7...frontline talent; 4-5...solid backups; 2-3...reserves or sleepers; 1...deepest reserves.

DALLAS...The Cowboys can pat themselves on the back for not having to waste a high draft choice to find their future QB in Tony Romo, who emerged as a fantasy force soon after taking over the starting job from Drew Bledsoe last Halloween. Romo (left) ended with 19 TD passes in a little more than half season of work, and even though his production tailed off in the late going, we’d still rate him near the upper tier of fantasy QBs. Keep in mind, however, that new HC Wade Phillips has pulled the reins in QBs in his most-recent head coaching jobs (John Elway was became noticeably more conservative when Phillips took over the Broncos in ‘93, and Wade opted for Rob Johnson over a livewire Doug Flutie later in the decade at Buffalo), so Romo is going to have to cut down on his penchant for mistakes that became problematic late in ‘06. Just in case, Phillips and Jerry Jones have brought in vet Brad Johnson in reserve. Of course, we have no idea what the next chapter might be in the ongoing Terrell Owens soap opera, except that for now he remains on the roster. If he’s still there in the fall, don’t be surprised is he posts more big numbers (85 catches and 13 TDs in ‘06), as might fellow wideout Terry Glenn (70 receptions LY) & underrated TE Jason Witten (64 catches in ‘06). The RB pair of Julius Jones (1084 YR LY) and Marion Barber III (654 YR and 16 TDs in ‘06) should also be high on fantasy shopping lists. Fantasy ratings: Owens-8, Romo-6, Barber-6, Jones-6, Glenn-6, Witten-5, WR Patrick Crayton-2, PK Martin Gramatica-1.

DENVER: There was big fantasy news in the offseason in Denver, because after developing a succession of RBs through the draft, HC Mike Shanahan switched course and went the FA direction to find his next “RB special” when plucking Travis Henry from the Titans. With Tatum Bell traded to Detroit in order to acquire CB Dre’ Bly, Henry figures to be the next 1000-yard runner produced in the Denver factory, and his fantasy value shot through the roof after Shanahan sewed up the deal. Of course, holdover Mike Bell, a surprise as a rookie in ‘06 with 677 YR and 8 TDs, could still get his share of carries. Yet the RB situation is always productive in Denver; only the names seem to change. Less predictable has been the performance of Bronco QBs since John Elway’s retirement, but Denver fans saw enough in rookie Jay Cutler’s (right) five December starts to start dreaming big. Too soon, perhaps, to put him in the elite level of fantasy QBs, but that’s coming soon. Ex-Packer wideout Javon Walker (69 catches and 8 TDs in ‘06) is a worthwhile fantasy pick, but we’re going to recommend a couple of sleeper Bronco receivers in 2nd-year burner Brandon Marshall, who could supplant Rod Smith, and another of last year’s draftees, TE Tony Scheffler, who began to emerge as a threat late last season. And those shopping for PKs can always do worse than “old reliable” himself, Jason Elam, another 27 of 29 on his FGs in ‘06. Fantasy ratings: Henry-7, Cutler-6, Walker-6, Marshall-5, Elam-4, Bell-3, Smith-3, TE Daniel Graham-1.

DETROIT...After making only lukewarm recommendations for Detroit’s fantasy weapons last season, we might be willing to push the envelope a little more this fall. That’s because o.c. Mike Martz was working with, in his words, “half a deck” in 2006, and we’re not inclined to disagree. The playbook was scaled back due to offensive line woes, and Martz didn’t have the extra receivers he needed to run his preferred offense. That might have all changed with the drafting of Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson, the first-round pick who will team with underrated Mike Furrey (a shocking 98 catches LY!) and big play Roy Williams (right; 82 catches and 7 TDs) to give vet QB Jon Kitna plenty of targets in Martz’ 3-and-4 wideout sets . Expect the overload of receivers to help the new-look running game, too, as defenses won’t be able to simply double-team Furrey & Williams as often and force the Lions to use their infantry. Adding new RBs via trade (1000-yard Tatum Bell from Denver) and free agency (short-yardage specialist T.J. Duckett) figures to take carries from Kevin Jones. A livelier offense might also take some FG opportunities away from the ageless Jason Hanson (29 FGs last season). Second-round draft choice QB Drew Stanton isn’t expected to contend for the starting job this season, but keep an eye on him for the future. Fantasy ratings: Kitna-7, Furrey-7, Williams-6, Johnson-6, Bell-5, Hanson-4, Duckett-4, Jones-2, TE Dan Campbell-2.

GREEN BAY...Well, none of that drawn-out, Roger Clemens-like “will he or won’t he” from QB Brett Favre (left) this offseason. Unlike a year ago, when Favre waffled on potential retirement for a couple of months, Favre was on record early as saying he’d be back for 2007. However, let’s not confuse the present-day Favre with the version that was leading Green Bay to Super Bowls a decade ago, as his 18 TD passes were his fewest since his first year as a Packers starter in 1991, and his 56% completions were a career low. A young and at times depleted receiving corps didn’t help matters in ‘06, but fantasy-wise, don’t delude yourself into thinking that Favre is still a top-tier performer. As for his receiving corps, outside of productive Donald Driver (92 catches last season), we’re not sure that’s going to improve much in ‘07, unless 2nd-year receiver Greg Jennings (46 receptions as a rookie in ‘06) makes a breakthrough. Speaking of breakthroughs, the Pack will be looking for RBs Vernand Morency & Nebraska rookie Brandon Jackson (something of an underachiever for the Huskers) to pick up the RB slack caused by the FA departure of productive Ahman Green, although HC Mike McCarthy believes both fit in well with the Pack’s zone-blocking schemes. The summer PK competition between strong-legged rookie Mason Crosby (Colorado) and holdover Dave Rayner will be an interesting one. Fantasy ratings: Driver-7, Favre-5, Morency-4, Jennings-3, Jackson-2, Rayner-2, Crosby-2, RB Noah Herron-2, Jackson-1, TE Bubba Franks-1.

HOUSTON...After watching QB David Carr take another beating in the pocket last season, HC Gary Kubiak mercifully let Carr loose and is starting all over again with ex-Falcon Matt Schaub as the new QB. Kubiak is convinced Schaub can be a winner with the proper supporting cast, although we’re not sure he’s to that point yet. Inadequate pass protection hindered Carr’s fantasy numbers and could do the same with Schaub, especially since the Texans didn’t really address their need to fill the WR spot opposite prime-time Andre Johnson (right; 103 receptions in ‘06) after Eric Moulds disappointed last season. Rookie Jacoby Jones appears to be more of a kick return threat than starting receiver at this stage. But the Texans did succeed in altering their infantry by wooing FA RB Ahman Green from the Packers. Green (1059 YR and another 46 receptions out of the backfield last season) promises to be the Texans’ most-productive RB in their short history. But will the line improve enough to give him room to run and provide the protection Schaub needs to post big numbers? Fantasy ratings: Johnson-8, Green-6, Schaub-5, TE Owen Daniels-3, RB Ron Dayne-3, Moulds-3, RB Wali Lundy-2, PK Kris Brown-2.

INDIANAPOLIS...Always a fertile fantasy hunting ground in recent years, 2007 should be no different for the best Colts weapons. Of course, QB Peyton Manning (left) remains at or near the top of fantasy lists after another stellar ‘06 (31 TD passes), and the WR combo of vets Marvin Harrison (96 more catches and 12 TDs in ‘06) and Reggie Wayne (86 receptions and 9 TDs a year ago) is also on all fantasy radar. Shrewd GM Bill Polian, sensing the offense could use a bit more versatility a quality third wideout could provide, spent a first-round draft choice on Ohio State WR Anthony Gonzalez, who should be utilized immediately. Where the Colts appear a bit thin is depth at RB behind ‘06 rookie surprise Joseph Addai (1081 YR in ‘06), especially with Dominic Rhodes departing for Oakland. Keep an eye on this situation, as the Colts could still be looking to add some depth in the second wave of free agency in June, although James Mungro (who missed ‘06 with injury) is another possibility. Meanwhile, PK Adam Vinatieri remains a reliable fantasy producer. Fantasy ratings: Manning-9, Harrison-9, Wayne-8, Addai-7, Vinatieri-4, Gonzalez-3, TE Dallas Clark-2, TE Ben Utecht-2.

JACKSONVILLE...We’re not quite sure what is going on in Jacksonville these days, although no matter what, there are a couple of exciting fantasy options on the Jaguar roster. We’re not sure any are at QB, however, after an awkward ‘06 when Byron Leftwich was pulled from the starting job after 6 weeks in favor of David Garrard, and o.c. Carl Smith was relieved of duties despite the “O” ranking respectably despite not having a featured wideout for Garrard or Leftwich to utilize. Moreover, Leftwich was named the starter again by HC Jack Del Rio before minicamp, although some believed that might be a ploy to bring more trade value. Stay tuned. Meanwhile, the Jags passed on QB Brady Quinn when they had a chance to nab him in the first round, meaning that Del Rio and new o.c. Dirk Koetter (ex-Arizona State HC) must be comfy with Leftwich and/or Garrard. Desperate for some speed at the WR spots, the Jags are hoping a pair of rookies, Central Florida’s Mike Walker and San Jose State’s John Broussard, can help, although adding FA WR Dennis Northcutt for the Browns might help more in the short term opposite taller Reggie Williams & Matt Jones. The rookie fantasy sensation in ‘06 was RB/KR Maurice Jones-Drew (right) , who exploded upon the scene with 16 TDs, but keep in mind that he could lose some goal-line carries with big Greg Jones back from injury. We also suspect that vet Fred Taylor will have a hard time duplicating his 1146 YR, although he’s staying healthier now that Jones-Drew (and Jones) are sharing some of the carries. Fantasy ratings: Jones-Drew-7, Taylor-5, Leftwich-5, Williams-5, M. Jones-4, PK Josh Scobee-4, Garrard-3, TE George Wrightster-3, G. Jones-2.

KANSAS CITY...There’s more to come in Kansas City before we get a better idea about who the Chiefs’ QB might be in the fall, and which fantasy weapons (other than Larry Johnson) we might want to recommend. It won't be QB Trent Green, who wasn’t the sort of ball-control QB Herm Edwards wanted and was traded to Miami before the Chiefs opened training camp. Edwards, who is slowly molding the team away from the Dick Vermeil version into his own, is likely to give 2nd-year QB Brodie Croyle (left) the majority of snaps in minicamp and training camp in order to get him up to speed. If he’s not ready, veteran Damon Huard is a nice insurance policy as he was a year ago. Still, there’s going to be some rebuilding going on along the OL. And we’re not in love with the Chiefs’ wideouts, as neither Samie Parker nor Eddie Kennison have been the answers lately, and we’re not sure it’s a good sign that 1st-round choice Dwayne Bowe (LSU) already might be the best wideout on the roster. TE Tony Gonzalez (73 catches LY) is likely to lead the Chief receivers again. All of the others, however, are just peripheral fantasy components compared to star RB Larry Johnson, who thundered for another 1789 YR and 19 TDs last season. Once again, it’s Johnson and everybody else in K.C. Fantasy ratings: Johnson-10, Gonzalez-5, Huard-4, Bowe-4, Croyle-3, Kennison-3, PK Lawrence Tynes-3, Parker–2, RB Michael Bennett

Next week: Miami thru Philadelphia...

BET ON BASEBALL!! Use your knowledge of the game to win big money at the Bodog Sportsbook!

Football Related Articles

Return To Articles Archive