New TGS Cover Story: "March Mayhem" On Deck!

“March Mayhem” is a true month-long celebration at THE GOLD SHEET. Annually, there isn’t an event that gets us quite as excited. From the beginning of conference tournament coverage to the Final Four, we devote the better part of six consecutive issues to its coverage. This week, we’ll wrap up previews of the last five conference tournaments (Big West, SEC, Big Ten, ACC, and Big XII) before our special NCAA sub-regional edition next week.

Certainly, conference tournaments dominate the college stage leading up to the NCAA Tournament, but there are a few things to keep in mind as the last of these competitions wind down in advance of Selection Sunday. Although the winners of these events all receive automatic invitations to the Big Dance, results in other conference tourney contests don’t always have the impact the coverage implies in the selection process. Certainly, on occasion, teams have played themselves “out” of NCAA invitations by stumbling in the first round of conference tourneys, but the Selection Committee almost always has a longer memory than the previous week, and judges potential NCAA at-large entrants by the entire body of their work, not just conference tourney performance. Granted, more weight is often placed upon a team’s recent form (the last 10 regular-season games has often been a good barometer in separating teams in the “nitty-gritty” process), but the selection process includes numerous factors, including the much-discussed “RPI” (Ratings Percentage Index) and “SOS” (Strength of Schedule) components. And this week’s gathering in Indianapolis will almost assuredly follow a similar pattern.

Yet, as we have learned from watching this fascinating exercise over the decades, there is apparently no single factor that annually carries more weight with the Selection Committee than another, and most “bracketologists” inevitably end up surprised by a handful of selections each season (such as Air Force being included in last year’s NCAA field when few, if any, prognosticators forecasted as much!). Indeed, sources have told us that as much of the deliberation of the Committee revolves around seeding issues as whittling away the at-large candidates, and that it usually has a pretty good idea of which teams are going to make the eventual field by early in their decision-making process.

Whatever. What we do know is that the excitement is building for the Big Dance. And we at TGS intend to be as ready as always on Selection Sunday, which is like no other production day for our editorial staff. Unlike a normal regular-season week, where we know the schedules and matchups long in advance, we’re basically starting the college preview portion of the publication from scratch at about 4 PM PST Sunday afternoon, when the CBS announces the brackets. That gives us approximately 8 hours to handicap, write, proofread and edit a comprehensive analysis of first and second-round action from each NCAA sub-regional, all before our drop-dead deadline in the wee hours of Monday morning. But we love it...we really do!

As we have done the past few years, we’re using this week’s “calm before the storm” to include some added pertinent background info on the NCAA Tournament that readers should find useful. Thus, included in this week’s edition are detailed results, broken down yearly, from the past several NCAA Tournaments. In addition, we’re going to include a comprehensive rundown of how the “off” conferences have fared in recent NCAA action. We think these will prove handy reference items when the Big Dance swings into action next week. And if you’re interested in how our “bracketologists” at TGS view the field leading up to Selection Sunday, check out our website for daily updates at www.goldsheet.com.

So, get ready for the Big Dance. And, by all means...SAVE THIS ISSUE!

Following are straight-up and pointspread results for all of the “off” conferences in NCAA Tournament play since 1994. And it’s been wise not to overlook these entities in the first round the past two seasons, as five of them have won outright, and they’ve generally provided outstanding pointspread value as well (and how...the twelve “off conferences” are a combined 19-5 vs. the line in NCAA first-round action the last two seasons!). Some leagues have done better than others; excluding “play-in” games, MEAC reps have covered their last nine (!) first-round games, while Southern Conference reps have covered their first-round NCAA games the last six seasons. “Ws” and “Ls” below reflect the pointspread result for the “off” team in the matchup.

AMERICA EAST (Straight-up record 2-13 since 1994, pointspread record 5-10): 1994-Drexel (+9½) 39-61 L vs. Temple 39-61; 1995-Drexel (+16) 49-73 L vs. Ok. State; 1996-Drexel (+6) 75-63 W vs. Memphis; Drexel (+6) 58-69 L vs. Syracuse; 1997-Bucknell (+7½) 52-81 L vs. Tulsa; 1998-Delaware (+16) 56-95 L vs. Purdue; 1999-Delaware (+10½) 52-62 W vs. Tennessee; 2000-Hofstra (+12½) 66-86 L vs. Ok. State; 2001-Hofstra (+7) 48-61 L vs. UCLA; 2002-Boston U. (+24) 52-90 L vs. Cincinnati; 2003-Vermont (+25½) 51-80 L vs. Arizona; 2004-Vermont (+20) 53-70 W vs. UConn; 2005-Vermont (+20) 60-57 (OT) W vs. Syracuse; Vermont (+8½) 61-72 L vs. Michigan State; 2006-Albany (+21½) 59-72 W vs. UConn. ATLANTIC SUN (SUR 2-14 PSR 8-7-1): 1994-Charleston (+9) 58-68 L vs. Wake Forest; Central Florida (+23½) 67-98 L vs. Purdue 67-98; 1995-Florida International (+31) 56-92 L vs. UCLA; 1996-Central Florida (+30) 70-92 W vs. UMass; 1997-Charleston (+6½) 75-66 W vs. Maryland, Charleston (+5½) 69-73 W vs. Arizona; 1998-Charleston (+14) 57-67 W vs. Stanford; 1999 Samford (+15½) 43-69 L vs. St. John’s; 2000-Samford (+13½) 65-79 L vs. Syracuse; 2001-Georgia State (+7½) 50-49 W vs. Wisconsin, Georgia State (+14) 60-79 L vs. Maryland; 2002-Florida Atlantic (+18) 78-86 W vs. Alabama; 2003-Troy State (+12) 59-71 N vs. Xavier; 2004-Central Florida (+14) 44-53 W Pittsburgh; 2005-Central Florida (+18) 71-77 W vs. Uconn; 2006-Belmont (+24) 44-78 L vs. UCLA. Note: known as Trans-America Conference until 2001.

BIG SKY (SUR 3-13, PSR 9-6-1): 1994-Boise State (+18) 58-67 W vs. Louisville; 1995-Weber State (+15) 79-72 W vs. Michigan State, Weber State (+7½) 51-53 W vs. Georgetown; 1996-Montana St. (+9) 55-88 L vs. Syracuse; 1997 Montana (+20½) 54-92 L vs. Kentucky; 1998-Northern Arizona (+14½) 62-65 W vs. Cincinnati; 1999-Weber State (+13) 76-74 W vs. North Carolina, Weber State (+8) 72-80 OT N vs. Florida; 2000-Northern Arizona (+14) 56-61 W vs. St. John’s; 2001-CS Northridge 75-99 L (+12½) vs. Kansas; 2002-Montana (+20½) 62-81 W vs. Oregon; 2003-Weber State (+6½) 74-81 L vs. Wisconsin; 2004-Eastern Washington (+16½) 56-75 L vs. Oklahoma; 2005-Montana (+20½) 77-88 W vs. Washington; 2006-Montana +7) 87-79 W vs. Nevada, Montana (+10½) 56-69 L vs. Boston College.

BIG SOUTH: (SUR 1-11, PSR 6-6): 1996-UNC Greensboro (+18) 61-66 W vs. Cincinnati; 1997-Charleston Southern (+18) 75-109 L vs. UCLA; 1998-Radford (+31) 63-99 L vs. Duke 63-99; 1999-Winthrop (+28) 41-80 L vs. Auburn; 2000-Winthrop (+16½) 50-74 L vs. Oklahoma; 2001-Winthrop (-2½) 67-71 L play-in vs. Northwestern State; 2002-Winthrop (+33½) 37-84 L vs. Duke; 2003-UNC Asheville (+1) 82-74 W play-in vs. Texas Southern, UNC Asheville (+27½) 61-82 W vs. Texas; 2004-Liberty (+24) 63-82 W vs. Saint Joseph’s; 2005-Winthrop (+13½) 64-74 W vs. Gonzaga; 2006-Winthrop (+7) 61-63 W vs. Tennessee. No reps ‘94-95.

METRO-ATLANTIC (SUR 3-14, PSR 8-9): 1994-Loyola Md. (+24½) 55-81 L vs. Arizona; 1995-St. Peter’s (+22) 51-68 W vs. UMass, Manhattan (+7½) 77-67 W vs. Oklahoma, Manhattan (+6½) 54-64 L vs. Arizona; 1996-Canisius (+13) 43-72 L vs. Utah; 1997-Fairfield (+27) 74-82 W vs. North Carolina; 1998-Iona (+5½) 61-63 W vs. Syracuse 61-63 W; 1999-Siena (+7) 80-94 L Arkansas; 2001-Iona (+14½) 59-74 L vs. Maryland; 2001-Iona (+10½) 70-72 W vs. Ole Miss; 2002-Siena (-4½) 81-77 L play-in vs. Alcorn State; Siena (+28½) 70-85 W vs. Maryland; 2003-Manhattan (+7½) 65-76 L vs. Syracuse; 2004-Manhattan (+5) 75-60 W vs. Florida, Manhattan (+7) 80-84 W vs. Wake Forest; 2005-Niagara (+12) L 67-84 vs. Oklahoma; 2006-Iona (+7½) 64-80 L vs. LSU. MID-CONTINENT (SUR 3-11, PSR 6-8): 1996-Valparaiso (+18) 51-90 L vs. Arizona; 1997-Valparaiso (+10) 66-73 W vs. Boston College; 1998-Valparaiso (+12) 70-69 W vs. Ole Miss, Valparaiso (+7½) 83-77 OT W vs. Florida State, Valparaiso (+8) 68-74 W vs. Rhode Island; 1999-Valparaiso (+20) 60-82 L vs. Maryland; 2000-Valparaiso (+25½) 38-65 L vs. Michigan State; 2001-Southern Utah (+14) 65-68 W vs. Boston College; 2002-Valparaiso (+7½) 68-83 L vs. Kentucky; 2003-IUPUI (+26½) 64-95 L vs. Kentucky; 2004-Valparaiso (+18½) 49-76 L vs. Gonzaga 49-76 L; 2005-Oakland (-6) W 79-69 play-in vs. Alabama A&M; Oakland (+27½) L 68-96 vs. North Carolina; 2006-Oral Roberts (+12) 78-94 L vs. Memphis. No reps ‘94-95.

MEAC (SUR 3-13, PSR 12-4): 1994-NC A&T (+29) 79-94 W vs. Arkansas; 1995-NC A&T (+23) 47-79 L vs. Wake Forest; 1996-S.C. State (+30½) 54-92 L vs. Kansas; 1997-Coppin State (+18½) 78-65 W vs. South Carolina, Coppin State (+11') 81-82 W vs. Texas; 1998-S.C. State (+26½) 67-82 W vs. Kentucky; 1999-Florida A&M (+46) 58-99 W vs. Duke; 2000-S.C. State (+31½) 65-84 W vs. Stanford; 2001-Hampton (+17½) 58-57 W vs. Iowa State, Hampton (+13) 57-76 L vs. Georgetown; 2002-Hampton (+12½) 67-78 W vs. UConn; 2003-S.C. State (+27) 54-71 W vs. Oklahoma; 2004-Florida A&M (+4) 72-57 W play-in vs. Lehigh, Florida A&M (+28) 76-96 W vs. Kentucky; 2005-Delaware State (+26½) W 46-57 vs. Duke; 2006-Hampton (+3½) 49-71 L play-in game vs. Monmouth. NORTHEAST (SUR 1-13, PSR 8-6): 1994-Rider (+19) 46-64 W vs. UConn; 1995-Mt. St, Mary’s (+31) 67-113 L vs. Kentucky; 1996-Monmouth (+14) 44-68 L vs. Marquette; 1997-Long Island (+13½) 91-101 W vs. Villanova; 1998-FDU (+14½) 85-93 W vs. UConn; 1999-Mt. St. Mary’s (+26) 53-76 W vs. Michigan State; 2000-Central Connecticut (+18) 78-88 W vs. Iowa State; 2001-Monmouth (+35½) 52-95 L vs. Duke; 2002-Central Connecticut (+15) 54-71 L vs. Pittsburgh; 2003-Wagner (+20½) 61-87 L vs. Pittsburgh; 2004-Monmouth (+20½) 52-85 L vs. Mississippi State; 2005-Fairleigh Dickinson (+26) 55-67 W vs. Illinois; 2006-Monmouth (-3½) 71-49 W play-in vs. Hampton, Monmouth (+19½) 45-58 W vs. Villanova. OHIO VALLEY (SUR 0-13, PSR 7-6): 1994-Tennessee State (+18½) 70-83 W vs. Kentucky; 1995-Murray State (+20) 70-80 W vs. North Carolina; 1996-Austin Peay (+15) 79-90 W vs. Georgia Tech; 1997-Murray State (+23½) 68-71 W vs. Duke; 1998-Murray State (+12½) 74-97 L vs. Rhode Island; 1999-Murray State (+8) 58-72 L vs. Ohio State; 2000-SE Missouri State (+12½) 61-64 W vs. LSU; 2001-Eastern Illinois (+21½) 76-101 L vs. Arizona; 2002-Murray State (+9) 68-85 L vs. Georgia; 2003-Austin Peay (+16) 64-86 L vs. Louisville; 2004-Murray State (+9) 53-72 L vs. Illinois; 2005-Eastern Kentucky (+16½) W 64-72 vs. Kentucky; 2006-Murray State (+11½) 65-69 W vs. North Carolina.

PATRIOT (SUR 2-13, PSR 8-7): 1994-Navy (+20½) 53-76 L vs. Missouri; 1995-Colgate (+27) 68-82 W vs. Kansas; 1996-Colgate (+28) 59-68 W vs. UConn; 1997-Navy (+19½) 61-75 W vs. Utah; 1998-Navy (+28) 52-88 L vs. North Carolina; 1999-Lafayette (+17½) 54-75 L vs. Miami Florida; 2000-Lafayette (+21½) 47-73 L vs. Temple; Holy Cross (+20) 68-72 W vs. Kentucky; 2002-Holy Cross (+28½) 59-70 W vs. Kansas; 2003-Holy Cross (+10) 68-72 W vs. Marquette; 2004-Lehigh (-4) 57-72 L play-in vs. Florida A&M; 2005-Bucknell (+13½) 64-63 W vs. Kansas, Bucknell (+8) 62-71 L vs. Wisconsin; 2006-Bucknell (+5) 59-55 W vs. Arkansas, Bucknell (+8) 56-72 L vs. Memphis. SOUTHERN (SUR 2-13, PSR 10-5): 1994-UT Chattanooga (+12) 73-102 L vs. Kansas; 1995-UT Chattanooga (+16) 71-100 L vs. UConn; 1996-Western Carolina (+20) 71-73 W vs. Purdue; 1997-UT Chattanooga (+9) 73-70 W vs. Georgia, UT Chattanooga (+10) 75-63 W vs. Illinois, UT Chattanooga (+8) 65-71 W vs. Purdue; 1998-Davidson (+15) 61-80 L vs. Michigan; 1999-Charleston (-2) 53-62 L vs. Tulsa; 2000-Appalachian State (+13½) 61-87 L vs. Ohio State; 2001-UNC Greensboro (+30) 60-89 W vs. Stanford; 2002-Davidson (+12½) 64-69 W vs. Ohio State; 2003-East Tennessee State (+12½) 73-76 W vs. Wake Forest; 2004-East Tennessee State (+9) 77-80 W vs. Cincinnati; 2005-Chattanooga (+17½) 54-70 W vs. Wake Forest; 2006-Davidson (+10½) 62-70 W vs. Ohio State.

SOUTHLAND (SUR 2-13, PSR 6-9): 1994-SW Texas State (+16) 60-78 L vs. UMass; 1995-Nicholls State (+13') 72-96 L vs. Virginia; 1996-NE Louisiana (+19½) 50-62 W vs. Wake Forest; 1997-SW Texas State (+22) 46-78 L vs. Minnesota; 1998-Nicholls State (+26) 60-99 L vs. Arizona; 1999-UT San Antonio (+26½) 66-91 W vs. UConn; 2000-Lamar (+32') 55-82 W vs. Duke; 2001-Northwestern State (+2') 71-67 W play-in vs. Winthrop, Northwestern State (+26½) 54-96 L vs. Illinois; 2002-McNeese State (+10½) 58-70 L vs. Mississippi State; 2003-Sam Houston (+19) 55-85 L vs. Florida; 2004-UT San Antonio (+24) 45-71 L vs. Stanford; 2005-SE Louisiana (+18½) 50-63 W vs. Oklahoma State; 2006-Northwestern State (+6½) 64-63 W vs. Iowa, Northwestern State (+8) 54-67 L vs. West Virginia. SWAC (SUR 0-13, PSR 7-6): 1994-Texas Southern (+20) 70-82 W vs. Duke; 1995-Texas Southern (+18) 78-79 W vs. Arkansas; 1996-Miss. Valley St. (+26) 56-93 L vs. Georgetown; 1997-Jackson State (+35') 64-78 W vs. Kansas; 1998-Prairie View (+36½) 52-110 L vs. Kansas; 1999-Alcorn State (+22) 57-69 W vs. Stanford; 2000-Jackson State (+27½) 47-71 W vs. Arizona; 2001-Alabama State (+28½) 35-69 L vs. Michigan State; 2002-Alcorn State (+4½) 77-81 W play-in vs. Siena; 2003-Texas Southern (-1) 74-82 L play-in vs. UNC Asheville; 2004-Alabama State (+34) 61-96 L vs. Duke; 2005-Alabama A&M (+6) 69-79 L play-in vs. Oakland; 2006-Southern U (+24½) 54-70 W vs. Duke.

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