NCAA Championship Week, NCAA Basketball Tournament, Online Handicapping

TGS "Bracketology" Update... It's Championship Week!

by Bruce Marshall, Associate Editor

Xavier Well, Championship Week is underway, and the NCAA Tournament bubble looks more crowded than ever. We’ve been sorting out the Big Dance for a long time, and can honestly say there are more questions about the composition of this field, and the upcoming seedings, than we’ve had in a long while.

At this point, the only tournament result that has “reduced” the bubble is Wright State’s win over Butler in the Horizon League final. With the Bulldogs a certainty to receive a bid, Wright State (a longshot bubble team at best) has bumped somebody from the field.

Of upcoming tournaments, the “bubble” can likely be most impacted by the WAC (likely a one-bid league as long as Nevada wins the tournament), Atlantic 10 (where Xavier looks to be in good at-large shape, but the conference tourney in Atlantic City appears up for grabs). and Conference USA (a definite one-bid league unless Memphis is upset in the tournament). Of those three, the WAC and A-10 look to be the most "in play" tourneys, because the Wolf Pack must travel to Las Cruces, home of New Mexico State, for the event, while, as mentioned previously, the A-10 appears very wide open, and there's a good chance some team other than Xavier could win. Memphis, however, will be a heavy favorite to hold serve at home in the CUSA party. Of course, upsets can change things in any of the remaining tournaments, but we think it’s most likely to occur in the WAC and A-10. There's a strong likelihood that the winners of the Big East, ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big XII, Mountain West, and Pac-10 tournaments will already have been headed to the NCAAs. Although a a handful of teams will likely play themselves in or out of the Big Dance depending upon their performances in the conference tourneys (“bubble” teams are definitely advised to avoid opening-round exits).

So, as of March 7 at 9 AM EST, here’s how we “Bracketologists” at TGS have scoped out the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

EAST SOUTH MIDWEST WEST

Florida Ohio State Kansas UCLA
Memphis Texas A&M Wisconsin North Carolina
Georgetown Maryland Pitt Louisville
Texas Washington St UNLV Nevada
Virginia Tennessee Southern Ill Notre Dame
Oregon Marquette Duke Arizona
Virginia Tech Creighton Vanderiblt Butler
Xavier BYU Southern Cal Kentucky
Villanova Boston Coll Indiana Michigan State
Winthrop* Purdue Stanford Air Force
VCU* Georgia Tech Wright State* Texas Tech
Illinois Gonzaga* Syracuse Davidson
West Virginia Akron Old Dominion Oral Roberts*
Penn* Eastern Ky* Texas A&M-CC Long Beach St
Niagara* Holy Cross North Texas* Delaware State
MVSU/CConn** Belmont* Vermont Weber State

*-Automatic bid. **-Projected play-in game between Mississippi Valley State (SWAC) and Central Connecticut State (Northeast).

LAST FOUR IN: Old Dominion, West Virginia, Illinois, Syracuse.
LAST FOUR OUT: Missouri State, Clemson, UMass, Appalachian State.
NEXT FOUR OUT: Drexel, Ole Miss, Florida State, Alabama.

So, by our reckoning, the teams that really have to sit on the edges of their seats the next few days are Old Dominion, Missouri State, Appalachian State, and Drexel. The others are still involved in conference tournament play, and effectively still control their destinies. For the teams finished with their league tourneys, however, it’s sit and wait time.

BUFFALO: Georgetown (E3)-Penn (E14), Oregon (E6)- VCU (E11), Pitt (MW3) - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (MW14), Duke (MW6)-Wright State (MW-11).
WINSTON-SALEM: Florida (E1)-Miss. Valley State/Central Conn. St. (E16), Xavier (E8)-Villanova (E9), North Carolina (W2)-Delaware State (W15), Butler (W7)-Air Force (W10)
LEXINGTON: Memphis (East 2)-Niagara (East 15), Virginia Tech (E7)-Winthrop (E10), Louisville (West 3)-Long Beach State (West 14), Arizona (W6)-Texas Tech (W11).
NEW ORLEANS: Texas A&M (South 2)-Holy Cross (South-15), Creighton (S7)-Purdue (S10), Texas (E4)-West Virginia (E13), Virginia (E5)-Illinois (E12).
CHICAGO: Ohio State (S1)-Belmont (S16), BYU (S8)-Boston College (S9), Kansas (Midwest W1)-Vermont (Midwest W16), Southern Cal (MW8)-Indiana (MW9).
COLUMBUS: Wisconsin (MW2)-North Texas (MW15), Vanderbilt (MW7)-Stanford (MW10), Maryland (S3)-Eastern Kentucky (S14), Marquette (S6)-Georgia Tech (S11).
SPOKANE: Nevada (W4)-Oral Roberts (W13), Notre Dame (W5)-Davidson (W12), UNLV (MW4)-Old Dominion (MW13), Southern Illinois (MW-5)-Syracuse (MW12).
SACRAMENTO: UCLA (W1)-Weber State (W16), Kentucky (W8)-Michigan State (W9), Washington State (S4)-Akron (S13), Tennessee (S5)-Gonzaga (S12).

Some thoughts to remember as we get ready for Selection Sunday and the sub-regional assignmnets...

In the sub-regionals, the 1 thru 4 seeds get the preferential ("protected") geographic assignments, and everyone else just kind of follows along. The 5-12 seeds get sent where the 4 goes, the 6-11s to the 3, the 7-10s to the 2s, and the 8-9s to the 1. Teams cannot get a homecourt edge in the sub-regionals, which is why in Ohio State's case it is almost assured of Chicago because it can't be sent to Columbus (Buffalo or Lexington could also be a possibility for the Buckeyes), and Chicago is a likely destination for Kansas as well. Texas A&M is likely for New Orleans, UCLA probably to Sacramento, etc. Nevada, if it stays a 3 or 4, is likely for Spokane or could be a nice fit in Sacramento. Georgetown, a probable 3 or 4, probably shuffles off to Buffalo, although it could land in Winston-Salem. North Carolina is very likely Winston-Salem bound (it's not the home of Tar Heels, so they'll catch a nice regonal break), and Florida could end up in Winston-Salem, Lexington, or New Orleans. Memphis would figure in New Orleans or Lexington, as would Louisville if it lands a 3 or 4 seed.

BYU is a real headache because it won't play on Sundays, so Cougs have to be sent to a Thursday-Saturday venue in both the sub-regionals and regional. The Committee would probably send BYU to Timbuktu if it could, but the Cougs are the one team that always make things difficult.

These pieces to the puzzle are even more intricate for the Selection Committee than whittling down the bubble, and why the best "Bracketologists" (such as ESPN's Joe "St. Joe's" Lunardi) actually do a good and thorough job with their brackets because they figure in all of these geographic permutations.

We’ll be making adjustments to the list on a daily basis until Selection Sunday. Stay tuned!

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