TGS 2007 Football Preview Bonus: Indianapolis Colts

INDIANAPOLIS - So, how about it? Can Indianapolis go back-to-back with Super Bowl wins as nemesis New England did a few years ago, and start to get some mention in the pantheon of all-time great teams? We’re not sure, but we guarantee that cool Colts HC Tony Dungy (left) isn’t going to get carried away by the hype. After all, Dungy once played for a coach who knew something about winning back-to-back Super Bowls, Pittsburgh’s legendary Chuck Noll, who passed along some sage advice to a young Dungy long ago. “He (Noll) never really talked about repeating,” said Dungy. “He always talked about every year being like a new model of car. It was still a Corvette, but the ‘77 wasn’t a ‘78.”

That Corvette analogy isn’t a bad one for the Colts, but the different model years might be even more appropriate as Indy prepares to defend its Super Bowl crown this fall. Although shrewd GM Bill Polian has usually been able to minimize losses in free agency by replacing departed players from within and the draft, and by dealing with free agents on his own roster rather than those on other teams, he’s really got his work cut out for him this season despite managing to re-sign his most important offseason priority, impact DE Dwight Freeney. But free agency still took a bigger bite than normal out of Indy, stripping away four starters from the defense alone (CB Nick Harper to Tennessee, LB Cato June to Tampa Bay, DE Montae Reagor to Philly, and S Mike Doss to Minnesota). Which is a bit unnerving, even for Polian, since the stop unit finally began to show some teeth in the playoffs after getting pushed around for most of the last regular season.

Polian, however, wasn’t about to deviate from his time-tested formula in the offseason, either in free agency or especially the draft, where once again he demonstated the unconventional approach which has helped him net countless productive players in recent years despite picking near the end of every round. Wide receiver and offensive line didn’t figure to be priority areas for the Colts entering April’s draft, but that’s where Polian went in the first two rounds when selecting Ohio State’s Anthony Gonzalez and trading up for Arkansas’ big Tony Ugoh, sacrificing a 2008 first-rounder for a chance to nab the latter. Ugoh’s selection, in particular, was classic Polian, designed to give the Colts flexibility should they decide not to bring back LT Tarik Glenn at a high salary in 2008. Indy also grabbed six defensive players, none of whom particularly high-profile but all of whom likely to fit somewhere in Dungy’s system, which has shaped a solid “D” out of just those sorts of prospects in recent years.

But Peyton Manning or not, Indy would neither have made it to the Super Bowl, nor beaten the Bears once it got there, had the defense not stepped up its game down the stretch. Remember, the “D” was pushed around mericlessly for much of last year, and indeed finished last vs. the rush (plus allowing a whopping 5.2 ypc!). But only Chicago ran for over 100 yards (111) in the playoffs as Dungy made adjustments and, most importantly, had his “Manning of the defense,” platoon-leading FS Bob Sanders, available after missing 12 of the last 14 regular-season games with knee problems. Still, there’s work to be done, and replacing the influential DE Reagor (in whose absences the stop unit was particularly vulnerable LY) is key. Meanwhile, partly due to June’s departure, both weakside and strongside LB spots could be up for grabs. Lots of young DBs on the roster, however, make it easier to compensate for the FA losses of Harper and especially Doss, who missed much of ‘06 anyway.

Of course, Manning is hardly slowing down as he reaches his 30s (59 TDP and only 19 picks the last 2 years!), and has finally shed his Alydar-like reputation after so many near-misses earlier in his career. The addition of Gonzalez could make the Colts’ 3-WR looks even more menacing with the remarkably productive Marvin Harrison & Reggie Wayne (346 catches and 38 TDs between them since ‘05!) still in the fold. And no QB uses his TEs better than Manning, with the useful Dallas Clark & Ben Utecht combining for 67 catches a year ago. The most important development last season, however, might have been the emergence of rookie RB Joseph Addai (left, in the Super Bowl), who proved an upgrade from the aging Edgerrin James after rushing for a surprising 1081 yards. Indeed, the only significant concern on the attack end entering summer is depth behind Addai after Dominic Rhodes moved to Oakland in free agency. Meanwhile, the OL remains intact from the Super Bowl run, and clutch PK Adam Vinatieri (26-29 FGs LY) is still one of the best in the business. And keep in mind that Indy has also patented quick breaks from the gate, winning its first 9 in ‘06 and its first 13 the year before. Bottom line...It suits Dungy just fine that most of the talking heads have annointed the Patriots, who used the Colts as stepping stones for many of their past successes before last year’s AFC title game loss, as the team to beat. But let them dismiss another Indy title run at their own peril. Enough firepower remains for a repeat. And, most importantly, after so many past disappointments, the Colts now know they can do it.

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