European Soccer Weekly Bonus... Euro 2008 Update!

Well, we suppose not everybody in Europe is thrilled about the latest batch of Euro 2008 qualifiers contested at the end of March! If you're looking for some negative thoughts on the subject, check out what a couple of high-profile managers, Liverpool’s Rafa Benitez and Arsenal’s Arsene Wenger, have to say about the subject, and the resultant fixture congestion it causes.

For us, however, we get a kick out of these tastes of international football, right smack in the middle of the domestic campaigns, especially the odd-numbered, non-World Cup or Euro Championship years. If nothing else, it’s a nice change of pace, and a little reminder about why we get so excited abut those big international events every couple of years. Although we acknowledge the awkwardness it can cause some club teams (and can understand the railings of Benitez, Wenger and others). At least the Euro domestic calendar works around these qualifiers, unlike the every-other-year African Nations Cup (look for it again next winter!), which completely disrupts most of the Europe-based African stars right in the meat of their club responsibilites!

Anyway, more on the recent March Euro 2008 qualifiers, and our group-by-group update, in a moment. First, however, the halls of power in world football have been making some noise in recent weeks, and it wouldn’t be right if we didn’t make note.

My, how times have changed! It’s hard to blame us for having any other reaction after hearing the news (which was not unexpected) that Sepp Blatter would be running unopposed for the FIFA Presidency this spring. Another four-year term is being literally handed over to the balding Swiss.

Forgive us for shaking our head at this news. It’s just something we didn’t expect when Blatter got the job in the first place in 1998. But maybe that’s because we believed Blatter at his word way back when.

First, a little background. The race to succeed Joao Havelange at the FIFA castle in Zurich was a spirited one nine years ago, something of a blood feud between Blatter, Havelange’s General Secretary at FIFA, and UEFA President Lennart Johansson (right). Ostensibly, these were members of the same country club, but they nonetheless found themselves entwined in an enormous ego and power struggle that seemed to split the world football community right down the middle. Such was the fervor of the campaign that we recall it being the hot topic of discussion at the Soccerex show at Stade de France in Paris in April of 1998. Blatter himself made an appearance at the show, looking every bit as much a political candidate as Rudy Giuliani or Barack Obama today. We recall vividly how the courtly Blatter came up to us, introduced himself, and began rattling off a series of talking points about his campaign, as if we had any role in the voting procedure. But Blatter was taking no chances, and before we knew it we were on the Sepp mailing list, getting updates from the man himself on how he was going to be a better choice than Lennart Johansson to run world football’s governing body.

The peripheral issues were just as fascinating. Remember, England was in the midst of an all-out campaign against Germany and South Africa to secure hosting rights to World Cup 2006, which was its own major storyline of the day. But the Blatter/Johansson debate was such a hot button that the head of England’s committee, Alec McGivan, stated at Soccerex that England’s chances were tied to Johansson’‘s candidacy. The popular belief at the time was that Johansson’s success in steering the UEFA Champions League to such heights would garner him enough respect and support to sway the election, and that Europe would be lining up behind the Swede.

But Johansson underestimated Blatter and the levers of power he had access to, via Havelange, in Zurich. Blatter effectively check-mated Johansson by rallying support from the vast African contingent, with the promise of delivering a World Cup to the dark continent as the main bargaining chip. Soon, it was apparent that Blatter was going to prevail, and England’s World Cup bidders decided to jump through the Blatter hoop by switching their allegiance in the upcoming election. Which we always thought was a bit jelly-legged of the English World Cup delegation.

But Blatter was sounding more like a politician than he even thought, running as a “one-term” president. The Seppster was almost mimicking one of those American congressman who campaigned for term limits, but would apparently forget about the whole thing when discovering how nice they had it in their jobs.

Yet, Blatter’s first term was a rocky one, with many of his ideas sinking like a lead balloon, and internal squabbles spilled out into the public eye. He also failed to deliver the World Cup to South Africa, outmaneuvered in a master display of gamesmanship by the still-formidable Johansson forces in Europe, with the 2006 World Cup ending up awarded to Germany instead. Further, the fiasco involving FIFA’s marketing arm ISL threatened to completely undermine Blatter’s credibility, and General Secretary Michel Zen-Ruffinen’s campaign to discredit Blatter after uncovering unacceptable “dysfunctions” within the organization was another significant hurdle to be overcome.

Still, Blatter was undeterred, and completely forgot about his one-term pledge when announcing his candidacy for a second term in 2002. We were there at the last Football Expo in Cannes in January, 2002, when Blatter announced another run, making it sound as if he was doing so reluctantly, only at the urging of the various world federations. This time, the Johansson forces thought they had another foolproof plan to head Blatter off, and recruited Cameroon’s Issa Hayatou (left, with Johansson) to run, hopefully to siphon off African votes from the Seppmeister. But the power of the incumbency was too much for the Hayatou/Johansson forces to overcome, and Blatter won handily once more.

Now, after thinking it over, Blatter has decided to go for another term, long ago abandoning the whole one-term pledge thing which was part of his original platform way back in 1998. And frankly, most of the power brokers in world football don’t seem to care any more. Many of them have been feeding at the FIFA trough for a long while, and by saddling up to Blatter, they can keep their own mini-fiefdoms going across the globe. You scratch our back, we’ll scratch your back, we suppose. The FIFA Country Club is a nice one, with plenty of perks and privileges. And Blatter has done a fine job at making the members happy, who in turn have no problem preserving the status quo. Can you blame them?

We suppose the last act of the Blatter/Johansson battle was carried out this past winter, when Blatter protege’ Michel Platini, the former great France footballer, won the UEFA Presidency in a bruising battle with the aging Johnsson. Sounding like something of a Blatter reincarnate, Platini vowed many changes, most aimed at helping the “little guys” of the European football food chain at the expense of the big boys. There were votes to be had in the UEFA Congress from the small countries, too, who saw Platini as something of a Robin Hood, ready to steal from the rich to give to the poor, and using the Champions League as the pot from which to redistribute the wealth. We’ll give Platini some credit, because he is boldly going ahead with some of his ideas, big Euro football powers be darned. Among many changes Platini proposes is that more Champions League spots be opened to the smaller nations, and that runners-up from the big leagues such as the English Premiership, Italy Serie A, Spain’s Liga, and Germany’s Bunsdesliga have a playoff among themselves to whittle down the Champs League field before the lucrative group play begins.

Now, we admit that the Champions League had evolved into something it wasn’t originally intended to be when debuting as the European Cup in the 1950s, open only to domestic champions from the previous season. Even after the name of the competition was changed to “Champions League” in the early ‘90s, the format stayed basically the same, at least until the late ‘90s, when domestic runners-up, then 3rd and 4th place teams from the big nations, became involved. We’re not sure that was progress, but it was the way the Champs League evolved, and the massive TV ratings it generated indicated that Johansson had known what he was doing when expanding the competition. Few seemed to complain.

A showdown is brewing, however, because Platini is apparently going to follow through on his campaign promise and challenge the big teams and big leagues about access to those extra places in the Champions League. And don’t expect Manchester United, Real Madrid, and other members of the “G-14" group of teams to simply roll over. If Platini wants to push this idea to the limit, he is going to get involved in the sort of high-stakes poker game in which he could not only lose, but see his credibility diminished. We get the feeling that the big clubs can call in a few more chips from the major TV companies and advertisers than Platini at this stage.

International soccer governing bodies and teams have always lived within a sort of awkward alliance, anyway. But human nature being what it is, the power brokers on both sides like to make sure they are the ones who are in overall control, and occasionally, skirmishes like the upcoming battle for Champs League berths in Europe will occur.

In the past, cooler heads have always prevailed, and the sides have worked out an amicable agreement. But Platini and Blatter fool no one, because they know what a huge pot of money the Euro club teams control, and they just want to make sure they get their share (as is the case with Blatter’s ill-advised and terribly unpopular “World Club Championship,” another name for an obscene power grab by FIFA at some of the club team’s riches). Making the major clubs toe the line is a dangerous exercise, however, because the fact is the sport can run without FIFA or UEFA, and if the G-14 teams in Europe ever want to break away and tell Platini and Blatter to shove it, they can do so.

After all, they are the ones with the product...not Platini, Blatter or any soccer bureaucrats in Switzerland.

After taking a break since last November, the qualifiers for Euro 2008 revved up again in the last week of March before they pick up again in June. It was an eventful couple of matchdays, to be sure, as the complexion of several group races changed in a four-day span. Following is a quick overview of where each of the groups sits before action resumes again in June.

GROUP A...What appeared to be a foregone conclusion and group win for Portugal has turned into a real dogfight. Although Cristiano Ronaldo (left) and the Portuguese have a game in hand over group leader Poland, they’re still 5 points behind the Poles and sitting level with surprising Serbia and Finland. And leapfrogging Poland might not be easy unless Portugal gets some help, because a 2-1 loss last November in Chorzow, thanks to a pair of Eizebiusz Smolarek goals, has put the Portuguese at a disadvantage. The rematch comes September 8 in Portugal.

The Portuguese also missed a chance at max points on March 28 when Serbia fought back for a 1-1 daw. We’re not sure the Serbs are going to be able to recover from their March 24 loss to Kazakhstan, however, one that immediately put the well-traveled Spanish coach Javier Clemente in hot water.

A major disappointment has been Belgium, well off the pace and literally out of the running, and whipped 4-0 by a rampant Portugal (led by a Cristiano Ronaldo brace) March 24. We like Poland’s chances, with Portugal now perhaps having to go the playoff route to qualify.

GROUP B...This is one of those groups where the complexion of things changed in late March. In particular, Italy was faced with a literal must-win at Bari against Scotland, now coached by Alex McLeish, March 28. And with their backs against the wall, the azzuri responded with a 2-0 win thanks to a Luca Toni brace (left). The mettlesome performance of the Scots, however, has been the interesting development in this group that also contains three of the final eight (Italy, plus France and Ukraine) from last year’s World Cup. Italy had put itself in a box by drawing vs. Lithuania and losing at Stade de France last September, placing new manager Roberto Donadoni in the middle of a media hurricane at home.

We would still keep or eyes on France, which is looking for a new identity as it proceeds into the post-Zidane age. For the time being, holdover weapons such as Nicolas Anelka (who scored the only goal in the March 24 win over Lithuania) might have to be relied upon more than coach Raymond Domenech would like, although the emergence of a potential new star in young Lyon striker Karim Benzema (who scored the only goal in a recent friendly win over Austria) might prove the eventual key.

GROUP C...Already, Group C has evolved into a two-team race between Turkey and Euro 2004 holder Greece, still coached by the same Otto Rehhagel who authored that magic in Portugal three summers ago. But Greece has not been quite the same team since and was undressed by the Turks March 24 in Athens, 4-1. Look for this group to eventually be decided in the rematch October 17, with the winner likely advancing as group top dog, the loser likely thrown into the playoff mix.

GROUP D...Another group that has turned out a bit tougher than originally anticipated, thanks mainly to Ireland’s resurgence. And it really appears to be a 3-team race between Eire, the Czech Republic, and favored Germany, with all three now on 13 points. Keep in mind, however, that the Germans have a game in hand on the Czechs and two in hand vs. Ireland, so Joakim Loew’s troops look in good shape, even more so after avoiding a banana peel vs. the Czechs March 24, prevailing 2-1 on the road thanks to goals from Bastian Schweinsteiger and Kevin Kuranyi, canceling out a late Milan Baros strike.

Ireland manager Steve Staunton might have been in some job danger heading into the late March games, but back-to-back 1-0 wins over Wales and Slovakia have given him a stay of execution. The Czechs could be vulnerable as they revamp their squad, and the September 12 rematch (Ireland tied the Czechs 1-1 in the first meeting) could prove the deciding match to see which team gets a crack at the playoff spot. We expect Germany, with a nice blend of veterans (led by Michael Ballack) and youth (Lukas Podolski, Schweinsteiger & Co.) to win the group, although it still has to travel to Ireland for a tricky date October 13.

GROUP E...Could England be in trouble? Coach Steve McClaren (right) is certainly hearing the catcalls after another lackluster performance March 24 in Tel Aviv, a numbing 0-0 draw vs. Israel. Critics would really have had a field day with McClaren had the English not bounced back to beat scrappy but outmanned Andorra four nights later, 3-0, with Steven Gerrard the catalyst.

McClaren is an easy target, although we suspect the English talent base is simply not as overwhelming as many believe. Without Cristiano Ronaldo to play off of as he does with Man United, Wayne Rooney has found trouble creating space up front for the national side, and really hasn’t done much in an England shirt since Euro 2004. Meanwhile, McClaren has been experimenting with Gerrard away from his normal midfield pilot’s role, and with Rooney misfiring and Michael Owen temporarily out of the frame as he recovers from knee surgery, scoring options are limited. And besides its games vs. minnow Andorra, England under McClaren have not looked convincing. Not the best of days for the English.

We still say England makes it through, somehow, although we are not sure it will be as group winners. Croatia looks ornery and is setting the pace at 13 points, 2 ahead of Israel, Russia, and England, with a game in hand over Israel and Russia. Should Croatia get max points from June battles vs. Estonia and Russia, we think they’ll win the group, an England will likely have to scrap for a playoff spot.

GROUP F...Another group where March fixtures changed the look of things. It was a particularly important pair of games for Spain, which had dug itself a big hole with losses to both Sweden and Northern Ireland and looked to be the heavyweight side in the most trouble in all of the qualifiers. It needed home wins over Denmark and Iceland to get back on course, and it got them, thanks to old pro Fernando Morientes’ deft scoring touch vs. the Danes, then Andres Iniesta (left) saving the night against the Ice men with his 81st-minute goal in a deluge at the Son Moix. Iceland, massing its defense and letting its excellent GK Arne Gautur Arason fluster the Spaniards, looked capable of a forcing a nil-nil until Iniesta’s heroics, which also probably gives a lifeline to embattled veteran coach Luis Aragones.

Every side has lost already in group play, including the Swedes, who bit the dust 2-1 against Northern Ireland at Windsor Park March 28, Leeds’ David Healy netting a brace for the winners. The Danes also figure to have something to say in this group before all is complete. Still all to play for here, but with rematches at home vs. both Northern Ireland and the Swedes, and getting back on track in late March, we like Spain’s chances to end up on top.

GROUP G...It’s not coming easily for Holland in this workmanlike group, especially with goals hard to come by for the Dutch. Only 8 of them in 6 qualifiers to date, although it has been enough to put Marco van Basten’s (left) side clearly on top after the March matches. The Dutch have played one more game than everyone else in the group, but will welcome a fixture quirk that has them off until August. At that time, explosive wing Arjen Robben should be sufficiently recovered from a knee injury that has prematurely ended his campaign at Chelsea, but this remains a releatively green Dutch side, as van Basten has shown little inclination to recall some of the vets like Ruud van Nistelrooy and Edgar Davids and others who have been fixtures in Dutch teams for the last decade.

Romania figures to chase the Dutch all of the way, and was able to quell van Basten’s troops in a 0-0 draw March 24 at Rotterdam. The Romanians appear to have more attacking options than the Bulgarians, now coached by the irascible Hristo Stoichkov. Stoichkov, to no one’s surprise, has been stirring up the pot at home, and needed a vote of confidence from the Bulgarian FA after an ugly 0-0 draw vs. dour Albania March 28.

Stay tuned...

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