Euro Soccer Report... February Update & Champs LGE Preview!

Wow! So much for a peaceful beginning of the calendar year in European football.

And, just to think, the once-ballyhooed “transfer window” had little to do with the excitement.

Not that all the news has been good from European soccer over the past few weeks. Although we were ready to jump into the fray with our take on the Michel Platini vs. Lennart Johansson battle for the UEFA presidency, the spate of coaching changes around the continent (including a particularly eventful month in the Bundesliga), the moves of Beckham, Ronaldo, and others during the “window,” and a quick preview of the upcoming Champions League KO phase, we have been sidetracked once again by developments in the new dark zone of European football—Italy.

MORE HEADACHES IN ITALY

Now, we’re not naive enough to think that Italy is the only locale with problems around Europe. Hooligans, ultras, and other nefarious characters bent on mischief (and worse) are strewn all about the continent. There is a dark underbelly of troublemaking supporters bubbling beneath the surface in a lot of countries, and we’re not sure any place is particularly immune.

But for a major country, Italy’s track record dealing with such punks is downright embarrassing. It’s bad enough that we’ve had to endure the sordid Serie A match-fixing scheme that was finally brought to light last spring. Such corruption, however, doesn’t come as a big surprise in a country where that sort of behavior has long been the norm in business and politics.

Yet it’s Italy’s reckless brand of “ultras” that are now threatening to shake Serie A and all of Italian football from its moorings once and for all. The latest fiasco occurred last Friday in the Sicilian derby between Palermo and Catania. Only this clash between warring supporters began to ratchet up quickly after a bitter clash won by Palermo, 2-1. The match itself was delayed over a half-hour as smoke, partly from tear gas launched outside the stadium, limited visibility on the pitch and made play impossible. The rioting commenced full-bore after the match, with a local police officer suffering fatal wounds and upwards of 100 more wounded. What the heck is going on here? This isn’t Baghdad we’re talking about, is it? For all of the vitriol directed at the English hooligans over the past 20 years, at least the Brits have made a conscientious attempt to stamp out hooliganism and its resultant ills. Today’s EPL might feel a bit sanitized, but it’s a heckuva lot safer place to watch a game than most places in Europe. Those Italian ultras in Sicily last week didn’t show up at the game with just a few rocks and slingshots in their satchels. They were armed with real weapons and ready to go to war. I don’t know about you, but I don’t know of many folks who bring guns and rocket launchers with them when they go to watch a game. Those punks have some hellacious brand of mischief on their minds, and could really care less about the football.

Apparently, Italian authorities are powerless in regard to that brand of ultras, who continue to terrorize fans, players, and teams themselves. This is more than a football issue, it’s a societal problem that has bubbled to the surface in Italy, with soccer as the flashpoint for a disenfranchised element that merely uses the sporting events as a showcase for their brand of mayhem. Expecting things to magically “clean up” in Italy is about as delusional as expecting George W. Bush’s latest troop surge into Baghdad to produce different results.

Face it, Italian football and Serie A are broken. And the drastic measures they’re talking about to fix it (such as closing the stadiums to fans entirely, potentially making Serie A the first-ever “studio” league) probably won’t solve the underlying problems, either. We’ve been told that some of the ultras have become such a cancer on the sport in Italy that they can influence matters and policy beyond their local football teams, with access to levers of government as well. Chilling. It’s not too different from the disturbing situation in the Balkans, where Serb paramilitary commander Arkan and his ruthless band of “Tigers” once intimidated everyone and everything around Belgrade, where control of the local Red Star team was just one facet of his operation. Arkan was gunned down 10 years ago in his hometown, but his legend has been embraced by a generation of thug wannabes around the continent, and a handful of Arkan-like characters have stepped into the breach. And more than a few of those seem to be hanging out in Italy these days.

What’s the answer? Football can only control so much, but let’s just say we wouldn’t shed a tear if Serie A decided to shut its doors completely. Although there are lots of problems relating to football and its supporters elsewhere on the continent, Italian soccer, from its match-fixing to its ultras, really is a stain on the game. And if it were up to us, it’s not worth one more innocent life to keep on playing these ridiculous games where these morons can inflict so much damage. Let them hurt themselves in other venues. If Serie A wants to close its doors, we’re not going to complain.

Well, we suppose Michel Platini has learned the backroom part of the international soccer game as well as he did the on-field portion of the equation in the late ‘70s and ‘80s. Absolutely, Platini was a near-incomparable playing force in his heyday, sort of a Zidane before there was a Zidane. And, like a few other football greats like Franz Beckenbauer, has proven that he can make his mark off the field as well.

Platini’s well-orchestrated campaign to oust Lennart Johansson from the UEFA presidency, which became official in the January 26 meetings at Dusseldorf, has been in the formulation stage for several years. Unfortunately, there is a familiar slant to Platini’s message that we’ve heard before.

For lack of a better term, let’s call it “Blatterism.” Indeed, Platini has been under the wing of FIFA head honcho Sepp Blatter (left, beaming with Platini in Dusseldorf) for many years now, and has learned from the master himself which levers to push in the backrooms. Tactically, Blatter is renowned as an unabashed populist, and knows how to use it to his advantage. And Platini seems to have followed suit.

Platini’s main campaign theme for the UEFA presidency centered around a Blatter-like tactic to appeal to the most votes in the UEFA Congress. By hammering away at the structure of the present-day Champions League, Platini was able to appeal to the smaller UEFA member nations who have long been pushed to the side by the big teams and big countries. Platini based his candidacy on limiting the number of slots in the Champs League for the big countries while giving the “little guys” (whose votes count as much in UEFA Congress as England, Spain, or Germany) a better chance to share in the spoils.

Now, don’t get us wrong, in its purest form, Platini’s stance has some merit. Traditionalists were excited at Platini’s ideas, reckoning that the Champs League had lost its essence years ago when runners-up, and even multiple runners-up, from big domestic leagues were included in the annual bonanza, often at the expense of the smaller countries, whose champions basically had little or no chance to advance through a daunting string of qualifiers before the big money games would commence.

Perhaps Platini really is a traditionalist, but it’s ironic that these specific tactics garnered him enough votes from the disenfranchised UEFA countries that he was able to squeeze out a close win over Johansson (shown congratulating Platini at right). Like Blatter, who expertly courted the numerous African votes in the FIFA Congress to assume and keep control, Platini has basically come into power on the same platform. Apparently, the populist message resonates.

We’ll see if Platini delivers on his promise. Before casting Johansson as some sort of greedy villain, remember that it was he who provided the vision for the Champs League expansion as well as the expanded European Championships (which, by the way, Platini might want to expand from 16 to 24 entries—populism again!). It was under Johansson’s watch that UEFA became a cash cow, and don’t think for a minute that the real power brokers in Euro football don’t realize it.

Ironically, Platini, despite his Robin Hood-like campaign platform, realizes where the money comes from, too, so we wouldn’t expect many changes. And forgive us if we don’t believe Platini’s candidacy was based upon a bunch of altruistic motives. Platini simply took the course that would get him elected. Much like Blatter, but unlike Johansson, we doubt Platini is much of a visionary. Rather, we suspect he’s now just another politician.

Okay, now for the fun stuff. They’re ready to kickstart the KO phase of the Champions League in a few weeks. And, as always, we’re ready with our predictions. Let’s go!

Celtic vs. AC Milan...Picking up Ronaldo in the transfer window isn’t going to help the rossoneri because he’s Cup-tied, having participated in the fall portion of the UCL at Real Madrid. Still, from an experience standpoint, it has to be edge Milan, which has been here many times before. Celtic, meanwhile, has never reached this stage of the competition since it changed its name from the European Cup in the early ‘90s. Although we respect and admire how Celtic battles for Gordon Strachan, defense often prevails in such matchups, and it’s edge Milan. More match-winners on the Milan side, and we suspect Kaka and Gennaro Gattuso will control the crucial midfield pivot points and keep Celtic on its heels. ESW Prediction to advance...AC Milan.

PSV vs. Arsenal...Hmmm, an interesting battle, to be sure, as Arsenal looks to continue shedding the Euro “underachiver” label it earned during the days it was dominating the EPL (but failing in the UCL). It was ironic that the Gunners picked their worst domestic season to make their deepest Champs League run under Arsene Wenger a year ago. That said, we aren’t sure about a repeat, because the Gunner operation has changed a lot the past few years, with several new faces now carrying the baggage. But we’re having a hard time envisioning PSV getting over this hurdle. For all of the new blood at Arsenal, vets such as Jens Lehmann in goal and Thierry Henry (left) up front are still the most likely components to make a difference in a head-to-head. So we’ll lean that way...barely. ESW Prediction to advance...Arsenal.

Lille vs. Man United...Of course, Sir Alex Ferguson wants to hear none of the talk that his side caught a break in the KO round draw. And granted, any team at this stage of the competition is dangerous...but we just don’t think Lille is as dangerous as most of the others. Lille’s defense will be put under constant pressure by Man U’s vast array of weapons, and if there is one player who is demanding this stage to show off his burgeoning skills this season, it’s Cristiano Ronaldo, perhaps en route to an MVP campaign. We’re also interested to see how one of the shrewdest transfer window deals, Fergie’s signing of vet striker Henrik Larsson, plays out (we suspect he’s going to help Man U, maybe a lot). Too much firepower at Sir Alex’s disposal to expect the Red Devils to go out...at least at this stage. ESW Prediction to advance...Man United.

Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich...Old friends getting together once more, these two have seen a lot of each other in this competition the past few years. And neither looks to be fielding a vintage side this campaign. But problem-wise, it appears as if Bayern Munich’s troubles are more acute. The Bavarians have fallen off the pace in the Bundesliga and have canned manager Felix Magath, bringing back Ottmar Hitzfeld to rekindle memories of Bayern’s last Champs League crown in 2001. But the side has missed the departed Michael Ballack greatly, and is not hitting February with much momentum. Neither is Real Madrid. Loser of 4 of its last 6 in Spain, but we don’t think the recent departues of Ronaldo and David Beckham (never mind if he’s still on the bench, as Fabio Capello won’t play him) will hurt the Bernabeu crew too much. ESW prediction to advance...Real Madrid.

Roma vs. Lyon...What is going on at Lyon? Are the wheels coming off? Five matches without a win in Ligue Un? No question, Lyon has hit a rough patch, but it had several mulligans to use on the domestic front, and let’s not forget the Gerard Houllier’s side still has a commanding lead at home. That said, Roma will offer stiff resistance, especially with Francesco Totti enjoying something of a renaissance. It won’t be easy, but we think Lyon, with Juninho Pernambucano pulling the strings at midfield and scaring Roma to death with his free kicks, will find a way to advance. ESW Prediction to advance...Lyon. Barcelona vs. Liverpool...Ahh, it doesn’t get much better than this, with the last two Champs League winners facing off. But the superior squad is Barcelona, with more depth in attack, speed on the flanks, and flair in the package called Ronaldinho. We can never underestimate a side boasting of Steven Gerrard, but we have a feeling Barca’s underrated defensive resolve will be able to fluster Liverpool, while Ronaldinho runs them ragged on the other end. Keep an eye on the availability of Barca striker Samuel Eto’o, out since September with injury but apparently ready to reappear soon. ESW Prediction to advance...Barcelona. Porto vs. Chelsea...We’ll hand it to UEFA for pulling some interesting KO round matchups out of the hat in regard to Chelsea. The past two seasons have featured titanic showdowns vs. Barcelona. This time, it’s Jose Mourinho facing his old Porto team, the one he steered to Champs League glory in ‘04 before leaving for Chelsea. Within the backdrop of the deliciously-ironic encounter are rumors that Mourinho and Chelsea might be ready to part ways soon. We almost think Mourinho is more likely to bolt if he wins multiple trophies (and the Blues are still in the hunt for 4 of them), so long, that is, if one is the Champs League. Chelsea should advance without much problem, and we would keep an eye on Michael Ballack, finally settling in London and beginning to really influence matches once more. ESW Prediction to advance...Chelsea.

Inter Milan vs. Valencia...We’re not sure this isn’t the best matchup of the round. Valencia was our “stealth” team to watch at the beginning of the competition, as we suspected the additions of Fernando Morientes (right) and Joaquin would prove huge pluses for the Che. Mostly, that’s been proven correct, except that Valencia has endured a rough autumn and winter of injuries. Still, the Che has rallied in recent weeks and will be hitting this matchup with some momentum. Inter is certainly capable, but we have always wondered what’s inside the belly of sorts like Adriano and Zlatan Ibrahimovic, and we don’t think Luis Figo can influence matches the way he used to. No surprise if Valencia pulls the slight upset and goes a lot deeper in this competition. ESW Prediction to advance...Valencia.

As always...stay tuned.

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