European Soccer Weekly Bonus... Euro Relegation Update!

There’s an old adage about those who ignore history being doomed to repeat it. The negative consequences of that ignorance are well-documented. History is loaded with such examples (many of those on the political side), which, regrettably, continue to this day.

As far as sports are concerned, the consequences usually aren’t nearly as dire. Except, that is, when we’re talking about matters of life and death. And herein is where European football finds itself once more. Has the sport learned from its hard lessons of the past? Or have those most responsible for the mayhem transpiring in grandstands and terraces around Europe have no idea what they are getting themselves into? Sadly, we suspect it’s a lot of the latter. There is no way to gauge the collective IQ of a rabid football crowd. But those bent on mischief at stadia around the continent could use a refresher course in what might transpire unless they decide to shape up. Difficult as it might be to watch, we suggest that media outlets throughout Europe begin to show replays of the death and destruction long ago at Heysel and Hillsborough. Perhaps then the troublemakers of today will have some frame of reference for the problems they are causing, or are about to cause in the future.

What’s really scary is that we’re not sure that would do much to alleviate the problem. The various thugs and miscreants who continue to stain the game in Europe might not have the attention span to really learn and understand what went on at Heysel in 1985. Worse yet, they might not care.

The return of this “black plague” around Euro soccer has the powers-that-be of the sport rolling their eyes once more. Incoming UEFA President Michel Platini is just one of many who have recently voiced their concerns. It’s not that the powers-that-be haven’t tried to alleviate the problems. It’s just that there might not be much they can do, save the drastic measures taken by Italy a month ago when a series of matches were conducted in empty arenas.

The recent stain has certainly spread further than Italy, where the ugliness at the Palermo-Catania match February 2 got this latest unfortunate ball rolling. Since then, significant problems have arisen in France and Spain. And if we had to bet, we’d reluctantly say that the worst is probably still to come.

Our raging diatribe against Italy and Serie A last month was in no way meant to isolate the rampant crowd control issues merely to that country or that league. We know the potential for mayhem exists elsewhere on the continent, and that Italy certainly isn’t the only place where ultras, hooligans, and plain old thugs can disturb the balance, sometimes fatally so.

Spain’s latest example is particular discouraging, because now the threats to players and coaches alike have to be acknowledged. A filled plastic bottle launched from the grandstand, aimed at the field of play, is a dangerous projectile, capable of grievous injury to the unlucky soul on the receiving end. Unfortunately for Sevilla coach Juande Ramos (left), it was he who got the worst of it from a bottle thrown in the recent Sevilla derby against Real Betis in King’s Cup action. Ramos was nailed on the head and collapsed to the ground, and for a while many feared they had just witnessed a murder. Fortunately, Ramos had only been knocked unconscious, and was revived at a local hospital. He will live to see another day, but we’re not sure the next victim will be as lucky.

And it’s not as if soccer fans in Spain, Italy, or elsewhere in Europe haven’t seen recent examples of players and coaches endangered on the pitch. Last year, AC Milan GK Dida was injured by a smoke bomb thrown onto the pitch, and the pictures of a supine Dida were front page on every Euro sports section and at the beginning of almost every TV newscast across the continent for the following week. But the same problems keep happening.

Now, France is also in the crosshairs of the critics after the latest bad examples of its own. The crowd control at Lens’ Stade Felix Bollaert for the recent Champs League encounter between Man United and Lille (which has to move its European games from its inadequate home ground, hence the Lens venue) reminded too many of Hillsborough, with this time several Man U supporters appearing to be in the same frightening predicament as those unfortunate Liverpool souls who were crushed to death 18 years ago. Herding masses of people into a concentrated area, with few avenues for ingress and egress, is a disaster waiting to happen. Fans, unfortunately, cannot be counted upon to heed warnings, and in the Stade Bollaert case, we have to wonder if it was the authorities who botched the situation, dangerously so. Thank goodness we didn’t see any fatalities at the match.

Last weekend, however, there was more crowd trouble, this time at Saint Etienne in its match vs. Lyon. One of the visiting supporters launched a flare into the Saint Etienne section, and it was promptly hurled back, causing a melee and forcing referee Tony Chapron to halt the match for 20 minutes. That’s the latest in a disturbing pattern in France this season, dating to the shooting death of a PSG supporter following a UEFA Cup game vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv, and crowd trouble in the stands during the UEFA Cup tie between Nancy and Feyenoord, resulting in the Dutch club being tossed from the competition.

The saddest thing of all is that it might not matter how many precautions the authorities are willing to take (short of closing the stadiums, that is). The hatred among supporters continues unabated, and the vitriol is, if anything, on the increase across the continent. So, unfortunately, is the vile behavior.

As we mentioned last month and in many past issues, football is the unfortunate flash point for a disenfranchised element of society that merely uses the sporting events as an excuse to display their brand of mayhem. Hooligans, ultras, and other troublemakers are all in the same boat, albeit with different team colors and flags leading them all into battle.

At its root, these problems are basically tribal in nature. It starts from a “my side of the street vs. yours” mentality, advancing into one side of the town vs. another (a longtime acknowledged recipe for trouble, and an obvious irritant in the Sevilla-Real Betis equation, wherein the Sevilla team apparently appeals to the “upper class” of town while Betis followers traditionally come from the “working class”), or one entire city vs. another (those in the same region usually regarded as the most fertile rivalries for trouble), or one region vs. another, or, when things really get ugly, religion vs. religion (such as the Rangers-Celtic Protestant vs. Catholic rift), or country vs. country.

We have seen enough of it in person to know how scary it all can be. To this day, we’ve never witnessed anything quite like the early May, 1999 Old Firm clash between Celtic and Rangers at Parkhead, when referee Hugh Dallas was hit and bloodied by a projectile from the stands (at first we thought he might have been shot) while within a span of a few moments four different, enraged Celtic supporters charged the pitch before they could be subdued. The resultant show of police force at the ground was frightening, as the yellow-jacketed security detail literally filled every aisle of the stadium before order was restored, and police horses quickly surrounded the pitch. Had there not been such a show of police might, we are sure a riot would have erupted.

We know that players are scared, too, as we were sitting next to Dutch striker Pierre van Hooijdonk (then with Nottingham Forest, but up to Glasgow to watch that afternoon) in press row that day, and his look of fear and bewilderment at the mayhem developing in the stands and on the pitch told us that he must have been wondering if he could be the next target. And we’ve seen ugliness turn to downright scariness in Spain as well, especially during a Barcelona-Real Madrid match at Estadio Bernabeu in January 2000. We were in the adjacent subway station when it was evacuated, with police running everywhere, shortly before the start of the match. The Chamartin station and metro line run directly beneath the Bernabeu, and it has long been a worry for authorities that terrorists could cause some terrible damage at the venue. They sure as heck weren’t taking any chances with the bomb threat at the train station in January 2000, and that was 20 months before 9/11.

But we suppose what really baffles us is how little coverage these events seem to be receiving in North America, or, more specifically, the United States. Such are the media stereotypes in the states that unless English hooligans are involved in the trouble, it’s almost as if it’s not worthy of coverage. The softball-tossing sports media on US shores is accustomed to linking Euro soccer crowd problems with English hooliganism, as it did when blowing stories out of proportion during Euro 2000 (mostly absolving German hooligans and Belgian organizing incompetence) and that year’s UEFA Cup final in Copenhagen, when Arsenal and Galatasaray fans clashed.

What’s most ironic is that the English have done more than any country in the continent to clean up the conduct in the stands, and though hooligans undoubtedly still exist, they aren’t causing the sorts of problems at English football grounds as they once did. The Prem might be the safest place to watch a soccer match in all of Europe. Although you’ll have to look hard to find anyone in the mainstream American sports media who will want to talk about it.

Well, it’s that time of year again to look at the relegation picture in the big leagues across the continent. And again shake our heads in wonder at how things can go so completely wrong for a European soccer team if management isn’t careful.

This year’s example of how things can turn pear-shaped in a hurry is Leeds United, although the decline of the all-whites isn’t exactly front page news any longer. The rot has been setting in at Elland Road for the past few years, and the squad is now on a very slippery slope in the League Championship. Indeed, Leeds sits bottom of the table as we write, and could be headed further into the abyss in May if it can’t escape the drop zone. Yet another drop to Coca-Cola League One (the old Second Division) now beckons for the all-whites.

It wasn’t long ago that Leeds was one of the top teams in European football. We recall traveling to the training ground at Thorp Arch in January of 2001, the day before a FA Cup 4th Round tie vs. Liverpool at Elland Road. Then-manager David O’Leary was holding court with the press at the training facility, looking like a chap sitting on top of the world. Which O’Leary and Leeds really were in those days, battling Man United in the EPL and cruising along in the Champions League.

But Leeds had been built on a debt-heavy house of cards, constructed by then-owner Peter Ridsdale, and even then some lads close to the scene were telling us that the whole operation could come tumbling down if Leeds missed the Champions League the next season, never mind the unthinkable relegation. The subsequent 2-0 loss to Liverpool in that FA Cup match was perhaps an omen of things to come.

Well, on-field fortunes soon began to plummet, O’Leary was dismissed in 2002, and debts were suddenly more than even sales of such star players as Rio Ferdinand could satisfy. The panic-driven player dump weakened the side to the point it was indeed relegated a couple of years later. Ridsdale was soon out of the picture, the club almost went into receivership, new owners surfaced, then abdicated, before ex-Chelsea boss Ken Bates ostensibly rode in to save the day. But Bates is now presiding over a carcass, and even the recent appointment of firecracker Dennis Wise as manager has not stopped the slip into the abyss. It reached a new low last week in a home match vs. Sheffield Wednesday (another not-long-ago Prem side that had slipped two divisions before bouncing back to the League Championship), as team captain Kevin Nicholls was left out of the lineup after requesting a transfer to old side Luton Town (Luton Town?), one of the squads fighting to avoid the dredded drop along with Leeds.

It wasn’t long ago that Leeds players would be talking about moves to Man United or Arsenal. Now they’re demanding an escape to Luton Town! No wonder Wise said he was “gobsmacked” at Nicholls’ request. It’s no surprise that Leeds lost, 3-2, in a match that wasn’t that close (Wednesday was up 3-0 before two late goals flattered the all-whites). And the dismal story at Elland Road continues.

There really is no parachute in European football. Once the fall begins, there is little to break it. Relegation is dangerous. Avoid it if you can! Following is a country-by-country breakdown of relegation prospects as we head into the home stretch of the European domestic season.

ENGLAND...With nine matches to go, the relegation derby is very well-defined in England. Charlton, Watford, and West Ham appear to be clear favorites for the drop.

And what a letdown the season has been for West Ham, which was good enough to take Liverpool into penalty kicks in a pulsating FA Cup final at Cardiff last May. But the Hammers have borne little resemblance to that swashbuckling side, manager Alan Pardew was run off in December, and replacement Alan Curbishley hasn’t been able to slow the decline. Last weekend’s bitter 4-3 loss to Spurs all but confirms West Ham’s fate. As for Watford, odds-on to drop at the beginning of the campaign after its promotion, it’s really no surprise, as the most-popgun attack in the Prem (just 18 goals in 29 matches) simply can’t keep pace. Pardew resurfaced at Charlton in December, and the Addicks at least seem to have more of a pulse at this stage than either the Hammers (beaten 4-0 by Charlton February 24, a satisfying result for Pardew, we’re sure) or Aidy Boothroyd’s Watford. But they’ll need someone other than Darren Bent to score a few goals if the Addicks are to catch Man City, Sheffield United, or Wigan, the only others in any apparent danger. ESW Predictions to drop...Watford, West Ham, Charlton.

SPAIN...Three sides also face the Liga guillotine, and two of them seem a fait accompli, Real Sociedad and Gimnastica de Tarragona.

It’s been a terrible fall for the San Sebastian crew, which not too many seasons ago was a legit Liga contender. But not this season, as Real Sociedad has so far failed to notch a win away from the Anoeta. Despite manager Miguel Angel Lotina’s desperate attempts to rally the troops, the side has some serious deficiencies, especially the lowest-scoring attack in Liga (just 15 goals in 25 matches). As for Gimnastica, although in perhaps the most picturesque setting in Liga, no one expected much from the promoted side, and it hasn’t disappointed in that regard. Unlike Real Sociedad, its drawbacks are mostly on defense, as its 48 goals surrendered are 12 more than the next-worst Liga defense (Real Mallorca). Again, a recipe for relegation.

Those two are far adrift of safety; at the moment, there is a wild scramble to avoid the final drop spot, with big names such as Athletic Bilbao, Celta de Vigo, Real Betis, Mallorca, and even Villarreal and Deportivo La Coruna hardly out of the woods. The one side we fear for, however, is Levante, as it has had more trouble picking up points on the road than the others, the sort of shortcoming that often proves fatal in relegation fights. ESW Predictions to drop...Real Sociedad, Gimnastica, Levante.

ITALY...Serie A is a bit safer place than it was a few years ago (as long as your team doesn’t rig results like Juventus and a few others, that is) when the league consisted of just 18 teams, and 4 were relegated. The league is now up to 20 teams with just 3 relegation spots, so it’s not quite as dog-eat-dog as the old days.

At this stage, the teams in most trouble are Ascoli and Parma, the latter another example of a former Euro high-flyer now in steep descent after the financial house of cards came tumbling down. The Parmalats recently made a desperate roll of the dice when canning manager Stefano Pioli and enlisting former Chelsea and Valencia gaffer Claudio Ranieri, but the Gialloblu has yet to do better than grind out some draws on on Ranieri’s watch, and doesn’t have a win away from home all season. Not good. Ascoli’s plight is even more desperate, as it doesn’t have enough wins, period (only 2 all season). And failing to hold serve at home, where it has secured only 8 of a possible 39 points, is an ominous sign.

Regina, Messina, Chievo Verona, and Torino look to be the others in the most danger. We think Reggina can survive, as it’s the only team of that bunch that’s been able to consistently secure points on the road, and Rolando Bianchi has emerged as a potent scoring force with 14 goals. Torino, however, is flailing, having recently dismissed coach Alberto Zaccheroni in favor of Gianni de Biasi, but has still lost 7 of 8, including a 5-1 hiding at the hands of Fiorentina last week. Toro, unlikely to shoot its way out of its slump with a mere 20 goals in 25 games, could be the odd team out. ESW Predictions to drop...Ascoli, Parma, Torino.

GERMANY...Bundelsliga relegation fights have been more likely to involve name sides than other major European leagues, although the biggest boy on the block, Bayern Munich, hasn’t been sucked into that whirlpool for a good while. Still, almost every other Bundesliga squad has been in danger at some point in recent years.

This season appears to be developing into quite a logjam, as at this moment there are 8 different teams within 2 points of the final drop position occupied by Eintracht Frankfurt, with Arminia Bielefeld ahead of it only on goal difference at the moment. Wolfsburg, 1997 Champs League winner Borussia Dortmund, Energie Cottbus, Hamburg, Alemania Aichen, and Mainz are all hardly in the clear, either.

In the worst shape of all at the moment appears to be Borussia Moenchengladbach, which has the Bundesliga’s lowest-scoring attack and has managed just one road win all season. VfL Bochum might have a better chance to survive, but is still 3 points adrift of safety as it sits second from bottom, and has ground to make up if it wishes to reach safety. Right now, we don’t like the prospects for Eintracht Frankfurt, which is having more troubles than others holding serve at home (only 3 wins all season) and has shipped the most goals in the Bundesliga (42). That sort of parlay usually results in relegation. ESW Predictions to drop...Borussia Moenchengladbach, VfL Bochum, Eintracht Frankfurt.

FRANCE...This season, it appears as if France might be the league where the biggest names suffer the ultimate humiliation. Not only is legendary Nantes in trouble, but so is the consistently, and unbelievably, disappointing PSG.

As we wrote in our 2006 Superlatives a few months ago, it simply boggles the mind how PSG continues to struggle. With the resources and support of one of the world’s great cities, PSG continues to make hash of its potentially dominating position. Management has been pushing the wrong buttons for years, although it might have finally made a good move by bringing in manager Paul Le Guen to replace ineffective Guy Lacombe in mid-January. Shortly thereafter, PSG went on a 4-match unbeaten run, suggesting it should soon pull clear of the relegation muck. With a world-class striker in Pedro Pauleta and midfield star in Jerome Rothen, plus Le Guen now pulling the strings, PSG would seem poised to escape. But that’s far from certain.

Nantes, too, has made a recent coaching switch, calling upon the duo of ex-stalwart player Japhet N’Doram and Michel Der Zakarian to undo the mess of dismissed Georges Eo. Nantes are starting to grind out results (mostly draws) but need a lightning rod on the attack end to emerge, as Dimitri Payet’s mere 4 goals to lead the team does not provide the “go-to” threat relegation-threatened sides could use.

With Ligue Un’s leakiest defense (44 goals conceded) and sitting bottom of the table in early March, Sedan’s chances of survival don’t look good. Valenciennes and Troyes have also been too lenient on the defensive end, and aren’t picking up points away from home, either. We suspect those two, and not big names Nantes and PSG, will suffer in the end. ESW Predictions to drop...Sedan, Valenciennes, Troyes.

As always, stay tuned...

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