TGS 2007 Football Preview Bonus: Denver Broncos

DENVER—We have our own theory on why HC Mike Shanahan (left) made the abrupt switch from Jake Plummer to rookie Jay Cutler at QB late in the 2006 season. Follow along. Plummer’s future in Denver was officially short-term once the Broncos made Cutler their top choice in last year’s draft. It was hoped that “the Snake” might be able to lead one more deep playoff run after reaching the AFC title game the previous season, and perhaps keep the seat warm for Cutler the way Drew Brees had done in San Diego for Philip Rivers. But by the Thanksgiving loss at Kansas City, Plummer was struggling badly, and Shanahan reckoned that as long as the Broncos probably weren’t going anywhere in the playoffs, he might as well give Cutler his baptism right then and there. If Denver still made the postseason, fine and dandy, it would further aid the Cutler maturity process, and get him even better prepared for 2007. If not, at least the Vanderbilt whiz would have some real experience under his belt when the following season began, when he was slated to unseat Jake anyway.

Now, we can’t be sure Shanahan would explain things in exactly the same manner. Especially since it’s hard to tell what he thinks, no matter what the subject, from the sound-bite answers he routinely provides at his press conferences. But we have an idea they were pretty similar. After all, we receommended the same thing, even though the Broncos ended up missing the playoffs when losing their finale in overtime vs. San Francisco.

The Cutler apprenticeship continues this fall, but not after an eventful offseason more suited to network TV. Unfortunately for the Broncos, the CSI series isn’t what the team had in mind, but the New Year’s Eve shooting death of CB Darrent Williams, just hours after the Broncos lost that final regular-season game to the 49ers, cast a pall around the franchise. And the gloom only deepened when backup RB Damien Nash collapsed and died during charity basketball game in late February. In the wake of those tragedies, subsequent controversies were at least put in their proper perspective. Jettisoning Plummer and drafting a couple of kids with questionable character issues suddenly didn’t seem like such a big deal.

Shanahan, however, isn’t the type to sit on his hands, and went about getting some new weapons for Cutler as well as shoring up the pass rush for new defensive coordinator Jim Bates (whose official title is “Associate Head Coach of Defense,” with Bob Slowik the d.c., but make no mistake that this is Bates’ stop unit). Bates’ influence was felt on draft day when the Broncos made defensive linemen three of their four picks. And it signaled a change of course for the team, which now adds Florida Gator misbehavers to the usual list of Cleveland Browns underachievers (of which FA DT Alvin McKinley is the latest) to the annual quest of fortifying the DL. First-round pick DE Jarvis Moss, despite being too light at the moment for every-down duty, certainly looks capable of being a designated pass rusher, and college teammate DT Marcus Thomas is viewed as a potential run-stuffer in the middle of the DL. Both also had disciplinary issues in Gainesville, especially Thomas, who was eventually booted from last year’s Florida team. But along with 2nd-round Texas DE Tim Crowder and last year’s best rookie pass rusher, Elvis Dumervil (left; 8½ sacks), they represent a shot of adrenaline to the front four.

The biggest boon for Bates’ pressure defense, however, could be the Broncos’ pass coverage that was upgraded significantly when Denver acquired CB Dre’ Bly to play opposite Champ Bailey on the edge. With two shut-down corners, opposing QBs often look for passing lanes between the LBs and safeties. But since Bates doesn’t play much “Cover 3,” those opportunities could be few, and more coverage sacks could ensue. That’s the hope, at least. The Broncos have also reshuffled at LB, with Al Wilson departing and D.J. Williams sliding to MLB. Now, what about the offense? Cutler showed enough last December to get the fans at Invesco Field excited, and his electric arm can stretch the field a lot better than Plummer’s ever could. With Plummer traded to Tampa Bay (don’t ask if he’ll report), Patrick Ramsey arrives from the Jets as an insurance policy. To keep the attack humming, Shanahan re-upped the contract of big-play WR Javon Walker (689 catches LY) and added RB Travis Henry (1211 YR in ‘06 at Tennessee) and deluxe-blocking FA TE Daniel Graham from New England, as well as some unaccustomed bulk to the OL with 322-lb. FA G Montrae Holland via New Orleans. Henry and holdover Mike Bell (a surprising 677 YR and 8 TDs LY as a rookie) will give the Broncos their usual solid infantry component, but the receiver situation beyond Walker is a concern. Veteran wideout Rod Smith is slowing down (less than 10 yards per catch on his 52 receptions last season), although Shanahan has big hopes for 2nd-year targets WR Brandon Marshall & TE Tony Scheffler, each of whom showed considerable promise as rookies.

Bottom line...No matter Cutler’s considerable upside, his semirookie status qualifies him as an x-factor in the AFC West. Adding to that a new RB (Henry), thinness at WR, a juggled LB corps, and questions along both lines, and the Broncos’ prognosis is really somewhat murky. Still, if Shanahan succeeds in accelerating Cutler’s learning curve, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Denver make its usual playoff push.

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