College Football Team Trends

While we still have a few weeks of the college football season still to go, it’s not too late to check out pointspread trends that have emerged in conference play. Like all such angles, any of these could turn around on a moment’s notice, especially the various team trends noted herein. But now that we have a good sampling of games to draw from, more than a few of these tidbits are at least worth review.

Following is a conference-by-conference breakdown of pointspread trends (league games only) through the games of the November 4 weekend, with spread records of home and underdog teams highlighted.

ATLANTIC COAST (home teams 15-13 vs. number; underdogs 15-13)...Team trends have proven a lot more illuminating than overall conference tech angles in the ACC. There have been a variety of money-burners, including Miami and its 1-4 league spread mark, NC State and its 4 consecutive Ls, and North Carolina, yet to cover in three road ACC games. There are also some teams currently in the midst of upticks, including Maryland (covered last 3 and Wake Forest (3-1 last 4). Another rather formful side has been Virginia, 3-0 as conference chalk thus far.

BIG EAST (home 7-7, dogs 8-6)...Again, some team trends are more interesting than overall numbers, with unheralded Cincinnati the hottest spread performer at the moment (covered last 3 league games and 5-0-1 vs. line last 6 overall). Note that new media darling Rutgers has only covered 2 of its last 4 Big East games, and that Louisville was on a 3-game spread losing streak (2 straight in Big East) before last Thursday’s exciting win over West Virginia.

BIG TEN (home 18-15, dogs 14-19)...There are some obvious “divisions” within the Big Ten in ‘06, with Michigan & Ohio State clearly on top and Wisconsin also apparently a level above the other 8. Given that the “big three” has collectively recorded a 14-3 spread mark as conference chalk, it’s a bit surprising the underdogs have fared as well as they have (14-19). But as reliable as the Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Badgers have generally been, note Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan State, & Illinois are a combined 2-9 when favored. The Illini are an especially interesting case, with the underdog side covering the last 8 Illinois games (including all 7 of its Big Ten games thru last weekend).

BIG XII (home 17-17, dogs 19-16*)...No conference trends have yet to emerge, but there are several team-oriented angles worth a look. In particular, Iowa State’s recent nosedive (no covers last 5) has alarm bells ringing in Ames, while Baylor’s recent pointspread fortunes are also heading south (no covers last 4). On the other end, Texas A&M, though a narrow loser last weekend vs. Oklahoma, has nonetheless covered its last 5 conference games.*-includes Texas vs. Oklahoma game at Dallas.

CONFERENCE USA (home 16-13, dogs 12-17)...Not particularly fertile for dogs this season, though there are some revealing team numbers within those aggregates. East Carolina continues to prove a value-laden side, covering 5 of 6 CUSA tilts this year. And SMU, picking up where it left off late last year, has covered 4 of 5 in conference play. On the other hand, Memphis has failed to cover its last 4 and UCF its last 3 in league action.

MID-AMERICAN (home 17-15, dogs 21-11)...Major underdog drift in league play, with the “short” a noteworthy 21-11 vs. the number. Some of the poorer-performing favorites include Bowling Green & Miami-Ohio (both 0-3 vs. line as chalk) and Akron (1-4 when favored).

MOUNTAIN WEST (home 12-10*, dogs 8-13)...Underdogs aren’t having quite as much trouble as it seems—it’s only when they play rampaging BYU (4-0 as MWC chalk, and a nation’s-best 8-0-1 overall vs. line) that they have real problems. Teams caught in a downdraft could be Colorado State (no covers last 3) and UNLV (1-4 vs. line in conference play). *-includes Air Force vs. Wyoming pick’em game.

PACIFIC 10 (home 14-17, dogs 14-17)...Not an especially formful league this season, with the exception of woeful Stanford, 0-5 vs. the line in league play. Preseason favorite USC had also dropped 5 in a row vs. the line before getting well at Palo Alto last week.

SOUTHEASTERN (home 14-19, dogs 20-14*)...As last season, mostly a road/dog league this season. That’s no surprise, given the overall depth of the loop. Note that underdog sides are 4-0-1 vs. the line in Alabama’s games this season, and that the road team is 6-1 against the number in South Carolina’s SEC contests. Meanwhile, SEC East champ Florida is 0-4 vs. the line away from the Swamp. *-includes Florida vs. Georgia game at Jacksonville.

SUN BELT (home 6-8, dogs 10-4)...Strong dog pattern reminiscent of similar developments last season. Hot team to watch is Middle Tennessee, with 4 Belt covers in a row.

WAC (home 11-10, dogs 8-13)...Perhaps due to the clearly-defined tiers in this far-flung loop, favorites are again performing ably. Some definite pointspread “haves” (Nevada 5-0 in lopp TY, Hawaii 4-1-1) and “have nots” (Fresno State 0-4, La Tech 1-3) this season.

NCAA Football Related Articles

Return To Articles Archive