TGS 2007 Football Preview Bonus: Baltimore Ravens

BALTIMORE—Let’s get right to the point in Baltimore. Since the Ravens continue to operate as if the future is now, are they really any closer to a championship level than they were a year ago, when they ran away with the AFC North crown but were bounced in the Division Round of the playoffs by Indianapolis?

The answer? We’re not sure.

We do know, however, that Baltimore enters 2007 with much the same look it had a year ago. GM Ozzie Newsome and HC Brian Billick didn’t blow up the roster after that loss to the Colts; indeed, they did a pretty clever job keeping most of the core in tact, as 18 of 22 starters return from last season despite some salary cap limitations, an indication that each believes the team as it existed a year ago still has one more serious playoff run in it. For the most part, the defense again looks to be Super Bowl quality. As for the offense? That’s another matter entirely, although we think we know in which area where the questions have to begin.

Simply, we believe the Ravens can only go as far as QB Steve McNair (left) can take them, but at this stage, it’s hard to say if that will be any further than a year ago. Sure, McNair proved an upgrade at a position that has haunted the franchise since its Super Bowl run in 2000, and even then the QB role (played by Trent Dilfer) was a side act to the main show produced by the Baltimore defense. McNair at least provided savvy and leadership in ‘06, qualities predecessor Kyle Boller (who’s still around, by the way) couldn’t master in the three years he was given to learn the job. McNair’s arm, however, isn’t quite the whip it used to be, and his ‘06 stats were decidedly modest (a decent 63% completions but only 16 TD passes). The lack of a speedburning wideout might have limited whatever damage “Air” could inflict upon enemy defenses, but that component isn’t much different in ‘07. And the clock is ticking on McNair, who will be 34 (and likely the league’s third-oldest starting QB, behind only Brett Favre and Trent Green) this fall. Sources say McNair’s window in Baltimore won’t likely go beyond 2008, although Newsome & Billick still don’t appear to have an heir apparent on the roster. That’s not for a lack of trying, however, as the brain trust was inquiring about moving up in the draft to have a shot at Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn, but couldn’t match Cleveland’s bountiful offer that Dallas eventually accepted. Boller will likely be gone after this season, and Heisman winner Troy Smith, taken in the 5th round, is a pure developmental project at this stage.

Despite returning the bulk of last season’s lineup, Newsome and Billick still had a couple of priorities to address in the offseason. After letting RB Jamal Lewis walk (he eventually landed in Cleveland), the Ravens believe they made an upgrade in the backfield when trading for Buffalo RB Willis McGahee. A few years younger than Lewis, and with a bit more pop, it is hoped McGahee can add more snap to an infantry that gained a sluggish 3.4 ypc last year. Many issues on the OL were solved when vet T Jonathan Ogden (right) decided to return for another season, and 1st-round draft choice Ben Grubbs (Auburn) is likely to move right into a G spot vacated by Edwin Mulitalo’s departure. Third-round pick Marshall Yanda from Iowa is also viewed as Ogden’s eventual replacement. Meanwhile, Billick and o.c. Rick Neuheisel are hoping that upgrades for the receiving corps are within the current roster, and expect that 3rd-year wideout Mark Clayton might really be ready to really blossom after something of a breakout campaign last fall (67 catches). He’s the one being asked to stretch the field, because vet WR Derrick Mason, though still sure-handed, is no longer a deep threat (only 11 yards per catch LY), and TE Todd Heap, reliable as he is (team-best 73 catches in ‘06), didn’t have a gain longer than 30 yards a year ago.

We spent a lot of time talking about the offense because it’s assumed by most observers that the voracious Baltimore defense (tops in the all-important points and yards allowed categories LY) will continue to uphold its end of the bargain. And for the most part, it remains much the same as a year ago, although there might be a few situations worth following. In particular, CB Samari Rolle appeared to lose a step or two last season, and he could get picked on even more in ‘07 if opposing QBs continue to throw away from Chris McAlister (off perhaps his best year yet) on the other side. And there was genuine concern within the organization that OLB Adalius Thomas, who left for New England via free agency, was a lot more important to the schemes than many realized. Still, top-notch talent galore remains on the platoon, with LBs Ray Lewis (left), Bart Scott, and Terrell Suggs still in their prime, and 2nd-year DT Haloti Ngata looking like the next potential All-Pro to roll off the Ravens’ defensive assembly line.

Bottom line...The window of opportunity is still open in Baltimore, especially with the defense showing few signs (at least yet) of slowing down. And McGahee could add an extra dimension to the attack. Thus, we expect another playoff berth is in the cards. But like last year, the element that will likely determine how far the Ravens eventually progress will be McNair. And, again, that might not be enough to push Baltimore over the hump.

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