Updated Monday 11/17/2003 8:52 AM

IT'S RIVALRY WEEK!

by Bruce Marshall, TGS EXTRA!!! Editor

  Looking for one main difference between college football and all other major U.S. sports (college or pro) besides the lack of a true playoff to determine its champion? It's that the emotional crescendo of the college football campaign is usually reached at the end of the regular-season schedule. That's usually not the case in the other sports, where, save for some occasional playoff-position jockeying, the final weeks of the regular season serve as more of a tuneup for the postseason action to come.

The late-season flurry of excitement in college football is usually highlighted by the most-intense of traditional rivalries. Some of those were born by mere geography; those "my side of the street vs. your side of the street" arguments often fuel the most fury in all sports (just ask an international soccer fan about Rangers vs. Celtic in Glasgow, or any number of other clashes between neighboring rivals). Other factors have contributed to the intensity surrounding many of those late-season college football rivalry matchups, which in some cases can also serve as "elimination"-type games for preferable bowl berths and rankings. Combining those latter factors with the inherent animous between traditional rivals creates a emotional powderkeg unlike anything else on the American sports radar.

There's more, however. Perhaps it's just the intense nature of some of these "special" rivalry games, but, as our research for THE GOLD SHEET and Gold Sheet EXTRA!!! has uncovered throughout the years, there are definitely more series pointspread patterns, trends, and characteristics associated with these "rivalry" battles than at any other time on the schedule.

The emotional components of such games are easier to identify than at other times of the season. It's unlikely that any side would come out "flat" for a game against a traditional rival. Sometimes, it's the favored teams that show no mercy vs. their despised rivals. But it's the underdogs who have been more likely to produce sell-out efforts in these contests, sometimes as a final chance to salvage something from a season gone sour. Indeed, our research has long indicated that underdog teams in rivalry games be scrutinized carefully. Those "rivalry" underdogs, limited in number because there are so few of those "special" games (Army-Navy, USC-UCLA, Cal-Stanford, BYU-Utah, Auburn-Alabama), have not always delivered winning results year after year, but the broadly-defined group of rivalry dogs has never delivered subpar results over any extended period of time. And under the rivalry dog "umbrella" are several variations on that theme (sometimes it's the rivalry road dogs, other seasons the rivalry revenge dogs) that have taken turns delivering noteworthy results, though those trends tend to be more short-term in nature.

The other factor to consider about rivalry game intensity is that boosters, alumni, and administrators often take a more passionate interest in those battles, which results in more pressure on the coaches and their staffs to succeed. Failure in the perceived "big" games on the schedule have cost many coaches their jobs.

Lastly, it's worth noting that schedule-makers have thrown a few curveballs this season, slightly altering the calendar sequence of some rivalry games. For example, the Pittsburgh-West Virginia "Backyard Brawl," long a season-ender for both, was moved up a few weeks this year (both have two more to play after last weekend's 52-31 Mountaineer win). Nonetheless, there are still some interesting series pointspread trends worth reviewing, the most-pronounced of which we will highlight below as we prepare for the always-exciting end to the college campaign.

Duke at North Carolina...The Tar Heels have covered six straight vs. their Tobacco Road neighbors, who haven't beaten UNC outright since Steve Spurrier's last year as Blue Devil HC (1989). Clemson at South Carolina...Mostly a visitor-oriented series for the past 15 years, with the Tigers covering 6 of their last 7 visits to Williams-Brice Stadium. Purdue at Indiana...Recent trends in the battle for the "Old Oaken Bucket" have favored the home side, which has covered five in a row. Visitors, however, were 9-0-1 vs. the line from 1988-97. Alabama at Auburn...Road team has won and covered last 4 in series. LSU at Ole Miss...Rebs have covered 5 of last 6 meetings. Utah at BYU...Visitor has covered last 11 meetings; dog 9-1 last 10. Washington State at Washington...UW has won and covered last three Apple Cups after WSU had covered the previous 6. Dog has covered 9 of last 11, too. Cal at Stanford...Bears broke 7-game SU losing streak vs. Stanford in LY's Big Game, but note dogs still 8-2 vs. line last 10 in series. Oregon State at Oregon...Home team has covered 5 of last 6 "Civil Wars." UCLA at USC...Trojans have won and covered last 4 in battle for "Victory Bell" after Bruins had won outright previous 8 meetings. Arizona at Arizona State (Nov. 28)...Road team 10-1, and dog 9-2, vs. line last 11 in series. Florida State at Florida (Nov. 29)...Favorite has covered last 5 and 6, of last 7 in series.