2007 NBA Playoff Preview

Although our 2006-07 publishing season ends with this issue, there’s still some basketball on the schedule. The NBA regular season has a few more games to be played, and then, of course, it’s playoff time. Which we’ll get to in a moment.

In the meantime, we have always been fascinated by the final weeks of regular-season play in major sports such as the NFL, and, particularly, the NBA. And it’s at the bottom end of the standings where some of the most interesting things transpire. That’s because the Oliver Stone-influenced types have long had a field day as they wonder if some teams try (or is it not try?) to win in order to help their draft status.

We can’t say that thought doesn’t enter the mind of some front-office sorts, but there is a lot of evidence to the contrary, too. After all, keep in mind that bottom-tier Boston just completed a 2-week stretch in which it beat San Antonio (for the first time this millennium, by the way), Atlantic leader Toronto, and playoff-hopeful Orlando in double overtime. Not to mention putting a scare into powerful Dallas, down in Texas, no less. Corresponding Western bottom-feeder Memphis doesn’t seem to have thrown in the towel, either, not with HC Tony Barone breaking out a box-and-one to slow Kobe Bryant and stun the Lakers at Staples Center recently. Sure, we can probably isolate other examples where it looks as if a squad might not care if it wins, but we suggest that’s more likely to be just another byproduct of being a bad team. Besides, GMs and coaches of struggling teams (think of Atlanta’s Billy Knight and Mike Woodson, for example) aren’t helping their chances of sticking around because their franchise gets the most ping-pong balls in the NBA Draft Lottery, and definitely aren’t assured of being in their same jobs when Greg Oden or Kevin Durant become dominating forces, either.

And the NBA Draft itself isn’t like the way it used to be, when the bottom two teams would flip a coin to see which got the first pick. That ended after Houston hit the jackpot two years running in the early ‘80s when its coin flip calls netted top choices Ralph Sampson and Hakeem Olajuwon in back-to-back years. A true lottery ensued the following year (when the Knicks defied the odds to land Patrick Ewing...now there’s something we always thought might be of interest to Oliver Stone!), and it eventually begat the present-day weighted lottery. Nowadays, there are years when a moribund team can’t even win for losing at draft time (such as Portland a year ago, which didn’t get the first pick despite its league-low 21 wins). Constant losing is no longer guaranteed to give any team the top choice in the draft.

Indeed, we often believe playoff-bound clubs are more apt to take it easy in the final weeks of the season, especially if their playoff berth and seed can’t be improved upon. Resting key players in such games is commonplace in the NFL, although NBA teams are a bit more discreet about it after David Stern reprimanded the Lakers many years ago for sitting practically their entire starting lineup for an otherwise meaningless final regular-season game.

In preparation for the playoffs, we’re providing a little “pro hoops postseason primer” before we sign off until football season. Our early “handicap” of the NBA playoff picture is accompanied by odds ( ) to win each conference championship, kindly provided by Bodog.

TEAM TO BEAT: Detroit (5/6) is certainly no cinch to get back to the Finals for the third time in four seasons. At the moment, however, it does figure to get top seed in the Eastern playoffs, which in this evenly-balanced season could be what ultimately tips the scales in the Pistons’ favor. Detroit has withstood Ben Wallace’s offseason departure, and Flip Saunders has loosened the reins offensively, giving Chauncey Billups (left), Rip Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince more of a green light to push the pace than past seasons at Auburn Hills, resulting in a more dynamic attack than recent Detroit editions. But Wallace’s intimidation factor could be missed in the postseason, and keep in mind how well Big Ben’s new Chicago team (a possible later-round playoff foe) has fared vs. the Pistons, winning and covering 3 of 4.

TOP CONTENDERS: Due to the logjam in the standings, we think several sides rate a decent chance. Of course, the big “x-factor” in the East is if Dwyane Wade really can make it back from his February shoulder injury for Miami (5/2). And if he does, if he’ll resemble his dominating self. If so, the Heat can think seriously about returning to the Finals, since Shaq appears relatively healthy, and Jason Kapono’s enhanced contributions from a year ago (he’s hitting league-best 51% treys) give Miami some truly unique dimensions. Speaking of truly unique dimensions, that’s certainly what LeBron James (right) provides Cleveland (4/1), which has never reached an NBA Finals in its history. This might be the Cavs’ best shot to get there, but some are wondering if LeBron could start wearing down soon, especially after he sat out recently due to a tendinitis flareup in his knee. Remember, LeBron’s season has been almost nonstop since fall of ‘05, as he participated in last summer’s world championships, although he was sharp in March when scoring 30.3 ppg. And he sent a warning shot of sorts Detroit’s way when scoring 41 in an overtime win over the Pistons at Auburn Hills March 7. Still, we suspect the best value to be found among the East contenders could be with Chicago (9/2), which certainly won’t fear Detroit now that Ben Wallace has switched allegiance. Both Ben Gordon and Luol Deng have matured into primetime performers, and LSU rookie F Tyrus Thomas has begun to make an impact as well. It would help, however, if F Andres Nocioni can return from the plantar fascitis that’s sidelined him in recent weeks. Bounced in the first round each of the past two seasons, Scott Skiles’ bunch is better prepared for a deeper run (perhaps much deeper) this time around.

DARKHORSE: Most observers believe Toronto (6/1) is probably a year away from being a serious threat for the Finals. The Raptors’ depth has taken a bit of a hit lately with Jorge Garbajosa’s season-ending ankle injury and Andrea Bargnani’s recent absence after his March 21 appendectomy (although he should return soon). PG T.J. Ford, however, has proven a valuable addition this season, C Chris Bosh has matured into a sometimes-dominant force in his 3rd season, and Toronto proved it is growing up by recently ending a multi-year losing steak (15 straight defeats!) to Chicago.

LONGSHOTS: Usually, lower-numbered seeds can be dismissed as serious contenders, although the well-balanced nature of this year’s Eastern race could prove the exception to the rule. And if it does, perhaps New Jersey (30/1) will be the team to break through. The Nets were hampered by inconsistency all season, and have been without C Nenad Krstic (ACL) since Christmas. But the “big three” of Jason Kidd (right), Vince Carter, and Richard Jefferson (now regaining form after missing two months following ankle surgery) have led the Nets deep into the postseason before, so this might be one longshot to keep an eye on. At least moreso than Orlando (28/1), which despite having a few bright marks this season (such as Jameer Nelson maturing into a backcourt force) hasn’t displayed the sort of “roadability” to suggest it progresses very far in the postseason. But even the Magic look more dangerous at the moment than Washington (25/1), which was as a legit darkhorse when Gilbert Arenas (left) and Caron Butler were both in the lineup. But with both now out with injury and definitely unable to participate in the early rounds, HC Eddie Jordan’s creative schemes lack their usual pizzazz, and the Wizards are already thinking about next year.

TEAM TO BEAT: Despite posting one of the best-ever NBA regular-season marks, it’s not going to be easy for Dallas (2/3) to make a return trip to the Finals. A couple of recent losses to Phoenix are cause for concern, and San Antonio is itching for a chance to avenge last year’s bitter, 7-game loss in the West’s championship round. But Avery Johnson's (right) Mavericks play better defense than Don Nelson’s old version, and a deep, well-oiled offense led by Dirk Nowitzki arguably has more dimensions than any side in the league. And the fact the Mavs have homecourt edge all of the way through the playoffs doesn’t hurt, either.

TOP CONTENDERS: As mentioned, Phoenix (2/1) isn’t blinking at the thought of facing Dallas these days, not after winning a double-OT thriller in Texas March 14 and blasting the Mavs at US Airways Center April 1. And unlike a year ago, Phoenix has a healthy Amare Stoudemire available. A bigger concern, however, might be getting past likely West semifinal foe San Antonio (5/2), which has proven conclusively it is capable of slowing the Suns’ frenetic offense. Phoenix has long had problems matching up with Spur frontline ace Tim Duncan (left), who too often has his way with Stoudemire & Boris Diaw. If Phoenix HC Mike D’Antoni is forced to counter with Kurt Thomas in an attempt to slow Duncan, the Suns’ preferred running game is slowed. Thus, San Antonio is well-equipped to use its well-refined execution in halfcourt to slow the pace and curb Phoenix’s racehorse style. Moreover, the Suns haven’t been able to inflict their normal damage beyond the arc against the Spurs, and without that normal three-point edge and corresponding open-court opportunities, Phoenix has lost 15 of its last 19 against San Antonio. So, we’re obviously not too interested in backing the Suns at their short price, especially if they have to face the Spurs (as expected) in Round Two.

DARKHORSES: Lurking off the pace, but causing worrying over-the-shoulder glances from the conference leaders, is Houston (8/1), which at the moment has both Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming (right) healthy and ready for the playoffs. Although HC Jeff Van Gundy will also want to make sure that emerging G Luther Head is ready for the postseason after missing recent action with a shoulder injury. There’s an interesting battle going on between the Rockets and Utah (15/1) for the West’s 4th seed and homecourt edge in their expected first-round matchup. Although the Jazz won the regular-season series from Houston, we don’t think they pose quite the same threat as the Rockets do to the Mavs, Suns, or Spurs, lacking the sort of explosive offensive dimensions that can distort a short series. But if rumors are true that HC Jerry Sloan is finally ready to retire, Utah might put forth an extraordinary effort (at least for a round or two) to send its longtime coach out on a high.

LONGSHOTS: The ultimate wild card in the playoff scenario is the L.A. Lakers (20/1), mainly because of Kobe Bryant’s potential pyrotechnics. But we doubt the Lake Show will be as much of a nuisance as a year ago when pushing the Suns to 7 games in the opening round, mainly because the team was playing a lot better down the stretch last season, and the more-refined offenses of the West have had no trouble dealing with the suspect Laker defense lately. And we’re not even sure Phil Jackson’s troops get to the playoffs, as one from among them, the L.A. Clippers (25/1), Denver (30/1), and Golden State (35/1) will miss the postseason entirely. We suspect any of those three could pose more problems right now than the Lakers, especially the recently-surging Clippers now that they’re getting balanced scoring. Remember, Mike Dunleavy’s underrated squad (which gave Phoenix all it could handle in the second round last spring in a tough 7-game series) owns the sort of veteran backcourt in Cuttino Mobley and Sam Cassell (whose back spasms aren’t expected to keep him out of the playoffs) that often comes in handy this time of year, and won’t be an easy “out” for any championship hopeful. The Nuggets are probably too thin in the paint to make a deep run, although they’ll have a puncher’s chance with Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson bombing away. The Warriors (who have had Dallas’ number lately, by the way, winning 5 of the last 6 meetings prior to their April 17 matchup) won’t be a pushover, either, as long as G Baron Davis (left) is healthy and in the lineup. Although San Antonio might not buy into any of that after burying G.S. (with Davis available) by 40 and 37, respectively, in a pair of regular-season meetings!

Stay tuned...

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